This year’s hype horse is Fact To File looks set to go off a very short price in the Brown Advisory over 3m, which leaves the Turners wide open and lacking a star. Whichever way you look at it, Ginny’s Destiny is the price he is because his stablemate Stage Star took the same handicap on the way to winning this race last year. I can’t have him at odds of 3/1 as I’ve no doubt that Grey Dawning – usually a good jumper – would have beaten him earlier this season had he not made a string of jumping errors. Those are both British trained horses and you have to look to Ireland for a bet when a market shapes that way. The only horse to beat Fact To File this season is AMERICAN MIKE who is being criminally underrated here as a bet. The 2022 Champion Bumper second was a major disappointment over hurdles, giving them no respect whatsoever, but is 2/3 over fences and has claimed the scalps of some top novice chasers which also include Nick Rockett, Favori De Champdou and Minella Cocooner. Described in the past as ‘pure class’ by Gordon Elliott and more recently stating ‘he leaves me scratching my head more than any other horse in the yard’, I love that he’s a bit of an enigma as that permeates the market with the lack of genuine stable confidence. He’s only entered in the Turners and I doubt talk of a supplementary entry for the Brown Advisory materialising given the strength of that race. The Turners is wide open and this horse has a big chance on form. 16/1 non-runner no bet is just a no brainer.
1pt win American Mike @16/1, Turners Novices Chase, Thursday 14th March (non-runner no bet)
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