The feature race at York this weekend is the 57th John Smith’s Cup with 20 set to go to post.
At the time of writing, James Fanshawe’s Arthenus was sitting at the top of the market at a general price of 7/1. His run in the Wolferton was eye-catching as he stayed on from last place to finish 1.5l behind Isaac Newton, but he prefers a bit of cut in the ground and it may be that he ran up to his mark. In any event, at the current price he is worth taking on with the ground still gd, gd-fm places.
This notoriously tough handicap has favoured four and five-year-olds in recent years with a draw above 12 winning seven out of the last eight editions.
CARRY ON DERYCK was acquired by Godolphin during the winter, and the four-year-old franked that investment on his first outing with a victory in a Meydan handicap last February. That race included the likes of Udododontu, Secret Brief (Lincoln Winner) and Flash Fire (Victoria Cup Winner) in the place money so it looks strong form on the evidence this season.
His UK turf reappearance was in the mud at Royal Ascot in the Royal Hunt Cup (1m) last month. It was a promising run considering the conditions were against him, and he was drawn on the wrong side of the track in stall 25. He demonstrated an excellent turn-of-foot just to get in to it at the finish before being an eased-up 9/28 and that attribute could be crucial to his chances in this field.
The better ground at York should suit, and his proven experience in big-field handicaps is a major positive having also finished fourth behind War Envoy in the Britannia Stakes during 2015 (just two starts ago). He has been very lightly-raced since the Britannia; this will be just his third start for S. bin Suroor so there is scope for him to do better racing off the same mark as at Royal Ascot, which should have put him spot on for this.
In stall 13, he looks a massive threat as he steps up to 1m 2f for the first time. There is cause for optimism that the extra 2f will suit based on how he has finished his races, and with plenty of stamina in his pedigree from his sire, we think he is one to keep onside.
The other one we like is the highly progressive Mark Johnston colt, REVOLUTIONIST, who ran an absolute blinder at Royal Ascot when not getting the run of the race in the Wolferton. He was drawn out wide and had to go round the bend very deep only to be beaten by horses up the inner.
The slow ground was against him, but he still managed to finish first of those raced prominently behind Sir Isaac Newton, who has since won a pattern race. His performances in large handicaps have been very solid having won the Zetland Gold Cup with Tawdeea behind and racing 4lbs worse off today (despite technically getting in to the race 4lbs well-in).
This race should be the perfect test for him and the colt certainly has the right temperament to win a contest like this.
His form at Ascot showed that he won’t mind a little bit of rain if it does come, although he is much better on quick ground, and he looks capable of putting up a strong challenge racing off the same handicap mark.
His trainer says he has targeted this race for a while and that he has improved on his last run – he is officially 2lbs well-in on his revised future mark of 107 – and who would go against a man in sensational form.
Revolutionist does have a tendency to front-run and might be helped by the lack of pace in the race as he could get a soft lead. The slight concern is whether he will be able to dominate this field in the latter stages as it contains a lot of fast finishers, and so an each-way bet with five places on offer looks the right approach.
1pt win Carry On Deryck @12/1, 16:15 York, John Smith’s Cup (William Hill)
0.75pt EW Revolutionist @14/1, 16:15 York, John Smith’s Cup (Ladbrokes, Bet365 paying 1/4 odds for five places)