1pt win Dame Rose @3/1, 15:00 Newbury, Saturday

Newbury hosts a Grade 1 on Saturday, featuring six novice hurdlers and a competitive betting market.

Three horses vie for favouritism around the 3/1 mark, with Colin Tizzard’s Kilbricken Storm – who I’m keen take on – winning the battle at 11/4 at the time of writing.

In the manner of a stayer, he won a Grade 2 at Cheltenham over three miles just two weeks ago and is turning seven on January 1st, so I’m not sure he’s destined for big things and might not be seen to his best over this shorter trip and so soon after that success.

Poetic Rythm is also up there with the favourites and looks to want three miles on past evidence, so it’s only the likelihood the heavy ground at Newbury will make this more of a staying race that suggests this scenario might suit.

He’s had a fair amount of racing and his form was nicely boosted by Momella’s game success in handicap company at Cheltenham this month, after she beat him a nose in their previous start behind the very talented On The Blind Side.

That’s good form, but he does have to prove himself on heavy ground, despite his pedigree suggesting it won’t be a hindrance.

There aren’t many negatives – it’s more pertinent there aren’t too many positives to side with either.

The one I like is the mare DAME ROSE in receipt of weight from the boys – in heavy ground every pound counts.

She’s been running over two miles mostly since graduating from bumpers and has already notched a win on heavy first time out this season, albeit in a low-grade race, before emphatically winning last time out at Newbury where she smashed a good horse Cap Soleil, who had beaten her in their previous start.

Stepping up in trip on this ground will require adjusted tactics as her front-running habits might not see her get home, but she seems to posses plenty of tactical speed and she’s been given plenty of encouragement early in her races by her numerous jockeys so far, so I’d be optimistic she can settle.

To my eye, she also jumps the best of this field, so there’s plenty to like.

1pt win Dame Rose @3/1, 15:00 Newbury, Saturday

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