Obvious value has been few and far between during Punchestown this week, particularly in the Graded races where the form horses have dominated the markets and generally run well.
Thursday’s card has an excellent Grade 1 with our favourite DEFI DU SEUIL running – and, amazingly, he’s not favourite.
That’s usually a sure sign of value in a market, and I couldn’t be more confident that he’s a better horse than market leader and Arkle winner Duc Des Geneivres of the Willie Mullins yard.
That horse might want softer ground than he’s going to get, and he bombed out at Punchestown last season so he’s very easy to take on.
I’m worried by the other Mullins runner Chacun Pour Soi, who is totally unexposed and looked brilliant when hosing up in a beginners chase in March.
However, this is a steep rise in class for him and Defi Du Seuil is a really, really good horse, so the value has to lie in Philip Hobbs’s Grade 1 machine.
Hobbs bullishly said immediately after Defi’s JLT win that he would have won the Arkle had he run there, and that’s comforting words considering he’s dropping in trip by half a mile.
Be sure to bet with a bookie with the best odds guaranteed concession, as there’s a good chance the two Mullins horses at the top of the market will be overbet causing Defi to drift.
1pt win Defi Du Seuil @2/1, 18:40 Punchestown, Thursday
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