Four go to post for this trial for the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival and the betting suggests it’s a match between O O Seven and Fagan, who both have strong form claims and trade around the evens mark despite both making the big step up from two miles to three.
Overlooked at 8/1 is Delusionofgrandeur, who has some smart collateral form and arrives on the back of a good win at Catterick, where, in receipt of 6lbs, he reversed the form with the horse that had beaten him on his previous start at Newcastle, Jonniesofa, by six lengths.
If that run marked improvement – he won going away – then even with the swing of the weights they’re closely matched on form.
Only a length separated Jonniesofa and the winner of the aforementioned Newcastle encounter, Ballydine, who ran a blinder last weekend behind the Albert Barlett’s unbeaten ante-post favourite Barters Hill, going down by less than a length.
That’s very strong collateral form and suggests Delusionofgrandeur could be overpriced.
The curveball is the ground, which is officially good, good to soft in places at Mussleburgh and might detract from the reliability of the formbook given most of the season has been run in a bog.
In these instances it can pay to turn to the breeding and the selection’s sire, Mahler – who is himself by the mighty king of flat racing sires, Galileo – has a very one-sided record of producing good-ground winners.
Five of his dam Olivia Rose’s seven wins were on good ground or quicker, so it really is a surprise he stays over three miles on heavy ground and there’s every reason to believe he might be better on a sounder surface.
I expect him to make the running to make full use of his proven stamina and, of the favourites, they have never raced beyond two miles so have everything to prove there.
Of the 33/1 outsider Calivigny, he was some 30 lengths behind the selection at Newcastle so is readily passed.
1pt win Delusionofgrandeur @8/1, 15:30 Musselburgh
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