Cheltenham Festival form is a dangerous thing at Aintree, as the two tracks are very different and the close proximity of the meetings means lots of horses leave their best behind at Prestbury Park.
Festival winners are often priced like bankers, as the fields are generally smaller and there’s more substance to the form book at this late stage of the season.
It can pay to take them on, and Triumph Hurdle winner Ivanovich Gorbatov is there to be shot at as an even money favourite for the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle on Thursday’s card.
The ground at Cheltenham was very quick and there’s been plenty of rain about this week, with the current going ‘good to soft, soft in places’.
He got turned over in February on slow ground at Leopardstown, with Footpad – who came third in the Triumph – winning quite comfortably.
It’s a strong form-line as the fifth placed Jer’s Girl won a Grade 1 in at Fairyhouse recently, and the horse that beat her by a head on her previous start, Apple’s Jade, also franked that by coming second in the Triumph.
The Irish form seems to be superior to that of the British-trained horses, who all fluffed their lines in the Triumph and are easier to dismiss – though Sceau Royal might be seen in a much better light with more ease in the ground.
At 11/2 Footpad would be the value bet out of the raiders.
The curve ball is the other Cheltenham juvenile hurdle, the Fred Winter, was run in a time six seconds faster than the Triumph this year and provided the winner for this race last season, when Paul Nicholls’s All Yours returned at 16/1.
That pays a handsome compliment to the chances of the winner, DIEGO DU CHARMIL, who’s trained by Nicholls.
It was his first run this side of the English Channel, entitling him to a little improvement, so some ten-times the price of the favourite at 11/1 he looks a solid value bet.
By the same logic, his stablemate ROMAIN DE SENAM can’t go unbacked as just a head separated the two in the Fred Winter and he was getting 3lb from the winner.
He finished the race strongest of all the runners so is possibly best suited by a longer trip, but at 20/1 he’s got to be worth siding with too.
1pt win Diego Du Charmil @11/1, 14:15 Aintree (Paddy Power)
1pt win Romain De Senam @20/1, 14:15 Aintree (888sport)