Ascot hosts a couple of Group Threes tomorrow, with the six-furlong 15:10 looking wide open.
Polybius shades favouritism at 4/1 after winning at Newmarket last time out. He gave four pounds to second-placed Naadir (9/2) on that occasion and, back to level weights, it’d be no surprise to see that form reversed. Third that day was Lucky Kristale, who won well next time out at York and franks the form.
Aeolus has a poor record at Ascot and his best form is on soft, so the forecast good ground may hurt his chances and he’s easily passed at 8/1. Cable Bay (8/1) returns to six furlongs for the first time since his juvenile campaign, but it’s hard to back a horse with a career record of 2/18 despite his being just 1lb off top rated. His Group Three penalty further detracts from his chances.
Richard Hannon’s five-year-old Ninjago arrives in fine form after being touched off in the Ayr Gold Cup when giving 2lbs to the winner, Don’t Touch. On that run alone, 12/1 looks fair each-way value and a course and distance win in 2013 encourages. It may have been a flash in the pan, though, and an otherwise-unsuccessful campaign doesn’t convince.
The race’s only three-year-old, Justice Good (25/1), makes just his third start of the season after a couple of forgivable dud runs on soft ground. He boasts some tidy course and distance form having finished fourth in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot last season and his age entitles him to further improvement. Quicker ground will certainly help his chances tomorrow.
Zanetto is another who will appreciate the drying ground, but I doubt he’s good enough and is 33/1 for good reason. 11/2 shot Interception’s Wokingham win over course and distance is tough to assess given her subsequent failings, though she had Polybius well beaten that day despite giving him weight, so their respective prices don’t add up.
The horse that really stands out on bare form grounds is July Cup third Eastern Impact. My concern is the ground might not be quick enough to be at his best and the form of his subsequent Chester win hasn’t held up. He’s fairly easy to back at 5/1, though, and he receives weight from the two closest to him on ratings – Aeolus and Cable Bay – so has to go close.
1pt win Eastern Impact @5/1, Ascot 15:10
1pt win Justice Good @20/1, Ascot 15:10