2m4½f Ladbrokes Best Odds Guaranteed On Racing Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-130)
This is a competitive contest with Asta La Pasta currently favourite at the time of writing for the Skeltons. He put in an eyecatching performance last time out from the back of the field in a decent novice handicap, but Asta La Pasta has to give weight away to most of the field and he might prefer a slower surface with his hold-up running style.
FIRE FLYER looks a very obvious alternative for Paul Nicholls. Fire Flyer put in a good performance on chasing debut at Exeter, where he ran into a progressive sort on a winning run that he was giving weight to. That run was also over 2m 1f and on soft ground. I’d expect the return to a faster surface and the step up in trip to 2m 4f to suit this son of Shantou well. Fire Flyer has some nice novice hurdling form and has a lot of potential as a chaser particularly off a mark of 126.
It was hard to rule out any of these with a great degree of certainty, but I think at the prices LEAVE OF ABSENCE has been underestimated here for Anthony Honeyball. Leave Of Absence has only had five starts under rules in his career despite being seven years of age and he has attractive looking form across his lightly-raced career. He finished third in a Grade 2 Aintree bumper when trained by Chris Gordon and also has a course bumper win to his name.
Leave Of Absence’s sole start over hurdles resulted in him beating Blow Your Wad (now rated mid 140’s over fences) and Rambo T (now rated mid-130’s over hurdles) quite comfortably. That run was almost two years ago so it was hugely encouraging to see him come back off that long layoff and run such an enthusiatic race over this course on his first chase start when finishing a couple of lengths behind Iberico Lord.
It’s hard to know how good that form is as Iberico Lord fell on his next start, but if Leave Of Absence can build on that form then a mark of 127 could be a laughable entry point here. There is a risk that he just needs a few more runs under his belt against more experienced types, but odds of 11/1 more than compensate for that. He is worth chancing on his first start over this kind of distance having won a three-mile PTP, he will love the quick ground and clearly likes this track so is fancied at big odds.
1pt win Fire Flyer @4/1, 12:45 Kempton, Thursday
1pt win Leave Of Absence @11/1, 12:45 Kempton, Thursday