The Dante Stakes at York is probably the best trial for next month’s Derby at Epsom.
Last year it produced the eventual winner in Golden Horn and, with the middle-distance three-year-olds division so far failing to sparkle, we hope this year’s renewal of the Dante can put forward another.
Top of the market is the unbeaten Midterm, racing in the Abdullah silks for Sir Michael Stoute with Irish ace Pat Smullen doing the steering.
Being by super-sire Galileo and out of multiple-Group One winner Midday he’s got the pedigree, but I have to take him on at 13/8.
He’s probably that price because nothing else has stamped their class on this division while his purple breeding and two-from-two record stands him out as the one to beat.
He’s certainly not scared off the opposition though as twelve go to post in a highly-competitive renewal.
At the prices I like John Gosden’s FOUNDATION, who was well beaten on his reappearance behind 2000 Guineas flop Stormy Antarctic, but that was literally run in a storm and he’ll have been lacking in race fitness.
Connections believe he’s improved so he should be a player, however the curve ball is usual pilot Frankie Dettori has made an eye-catching switch to Gosden’s other runner Wings Of Desire, which at first glance is a bad sign.
Wings Of Desire was very impressive in winning on the all-weather at Wolverhampton recently but the jockey move is the only possible reason you’d back this horse, and at 13/2 he’s probably too short to be value – the market’s seen him coming.
This Sporting Life piece offered some theories on the significance of the jockey switch and the one I buy into is that Foundation is being aimed at the French Derby, where Dettori is obliged to ride for his employers Al Shaqab Racing, so he’s on a fact-finding mission about Wings Of Glory’s potential Derby chances.
Another angle that works alongside this is that Godolphin, seemingly short on Derby options, might be looking to purchase Foundation, hence their retained rider William Buick stepping in for the ride.
This – the hype around Dettori’s jockey switch – all adds up to Foundation perhaps being overpriced, so at 13/2 I think he’s worth siding with.
There are also a couple of longer priced horses that might be good bets.
The first is Victory Bond for William Haggis, who ran away with his maiden at Ripon recently and has a loose collateral formline with Midterm which puts him not too far behind.
He’s 14/1 and not there to make up the numbers, but I prefer the chances of Roger Varian’s CHOREOGRAPHER, another easy maiden winner who is totally unexposed at this level.
Varian reports his homework to be good and thinks he’ll have improved plenty for the recent run, so there’s no shortage of reasons to believe he’s capable of outrunning his 20/1 quote.
1pt win Foundation @13/2, 15:15 York, Thursday
0.5pt win Choreographer @20/1, 15:15 York, Thursday