The highlight of Saturday’s action is the first Grade 1 race of the British National Hunt season: the Betfair Chase over three miles at Haydock. Last year’s winner Silviniaco Conti – who also won the race in 2013 – heads the market shading odds-on as a 10/11 favourite.
That’s in part due to the small field of five entries, which has to be a disappointing turnout for the first leg of the recently-renewed £1m triple crown for chasers. With Paul Nicholls already vocal in his disinterest of running his stable star in the final leg, the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March, there aren’t too many horses likely to even try.
One who might is the 2014 winner of this, Colin Tizzard’s Cue Card, who wasn’t right last season but put in a superb display in the Charley Hall at Wetherby to serve a timely reminder that he remains a force in the chasing division.
The flat track at Haydock suits him well as it takes the emphasis away from his suspect stamina – I’m not alone in doubting his ability to see out a three-mile trip as his trainer has said as much in recent years. He didn’t quite get home when looking to have the King George sewn up in 2013, with Silviniaco Conti outstaying him to take the first of his two triumphs in the race.
Deep ground is almost a certainty at Haydock this weekend, which, given he stays so well, doesn’t bode particularly well for the opposition if Paul Nicholls has Silviniaco Conti fit and well. All the signals from the yard are he’s spot on, so he’s a worthy favourite and the most likely winner.
Four of the five runners are nine-year-olds and represent a fully-exposed generation of British Grade 1 chasers. It means we know them all very well, so, in theory at least, this shouldn’t be the hardest puzzle to solve.
David Pipe’s Dynaste was a distant fifth in the 2013 King George and, despite running well, has been a consistent punting disappointment since winning the Ryanair two seasons back. His run in the Charley Hall was pretty good, but he looks well held by the winner and tends to come up short at this trip.
Pipe’s other runner Ballynagour, a narrow third in the Charley Hall, is a very good horse and was just held by Silviniaco Conti in the Bowl at Aintree last season. I just think it’s significant that his best form is on a sound surface and I can’t see him taking this.
The only eight-year-old in the field is Holywell, who ran a huge race in the Gold Cup to make a mockery of the perception he doesn’t handle soft going. He also had Silviniaco Conti well behind on the day, but the two met again at Aintree where places were reversed. Fewer than three lengths separated them the second time, and in isolation those runs really put a question mark over his 25/1 quote for this.
He was beaten by Cue Card in the Charley Hall, but that was his seasonal reappearance and let’s not forget that Hennessey and Grand National champ Many Clouds finished flat last in the race, while Silviniaco Conti flopped there on debut last season. It’s forgiveable. He will surely improve for the run, though he needs to, and remember he gave the first three home 6lbs on the day and is back on level terms for this.
Chief concern is he’s always been considered a good ground horse who saves his best for the spring, though I suspect that’s only partially true and the issue is more his size. A tiny horse for a three-mile chaser, he will never soar over his fences so the less-challenging jumps at Haydock might suit and his form at Aintree suggests a preference for flat tracks like this. He needs a strong pace and will get one with Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti presumably keen to get on with things at the front, so this might be run to suit.
Aged eight he’s got slightly more right to improve than the rest of them, so I’ll be having some of that 25/1 in the speculative hope he can bring his best form. He certainly shouldn’t be 25 times the price of the favourite given he’s up 15 lengths on aggregate on their only two encounters, so there must be value there, particularly with just five runners and no unknown quantities to spring a surprise.
1pt win Holywell @25/1, Haydock 15:00 (Paddy Power)
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