All-time-great Hurricane Fly – winner of the last three renewals and arguably the best horse ever to race at Leopardstown – is probably larking around a field enjoying his retirement, and in his absence Willie Mullins has continued his domination of the two-mile hurdling division.
His own Nichols Canyon took the unbeaten record of stable-star and Champion Hurdler Faugheen last month, and he’ll therefore be all the rage tomorrow to land his sixth Grade 1 hurdle.
Faugheen emphatically bounced back from that defeat when thrashing The New One to take Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle for the second year running, and his owner, Rich Ricci, claimed he’d lost 15kg since defeat at Punchestown.
It seems obvious he was miles below his best, particularly when you consider Wicklow Brave – a horse that’d never been up to Grade 1 class – was a couple of lengths back in third.
Punters and connections both latched onto that form and Wicklow Brave was well-backed when supplemented for the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle, won by the Gigginstown-owned Identity Thief – tipped by 2pts Win at 8/1.
Identity Thief takes his chance at Leopardstown and beat Wicklow Brave 10 lengths on soft ground at Newcastle, so a straight line through that form is very favourable.
There is, of course, more to it than that, as Nichols Canyon was making his seasonal bow and should improve for the run, but Identity Thief is also improving and he looks a straightforward value bet at 7/2 with the more likely preference for the testing conditions.
It does look to be a match as Neptune winner Windsor Park is making his seasonal bow and has a clear preference for good ground, and 100/1 shot Plinth looks way out of his depth.
Nichols Canyon will be popular so it’s probably worth waiting for the best morning price.
1pt win Identity Thief @7/2, Leopardstown 14:30
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