An interesting Fighting Fifth this year, with an unexpected market leader in Wicklow Brave. Willie Mullin’s charge got within two lengths of Nichols Canyon and the champion hurdler Faugheen in the Morgiana at Punchestown, whilst in August he placed second in the Ebor at York on the flat. Throw in his runaway County Hurdle success at the Festival and he’s a worthy favourite, though supplemented and now well backed into 2/1, the price is probably gone.
Irving and Top Notch renew rivalries from last weekend at Haydock, where the former was his usual clumsy jumper yet got up to win from Nicky Henderson’s promising Triumph Hurdle second.
Three races in quick succession has got to take its toll on Irving; likewise, I wouldn’t expect much improvement week-on-week from Top Notch, so I’m cold on both. They’re only running for lack of other viable options this side of Christmas.
Purple Bay needs better ground and is passed despite the huge 25/1 price, while Intense Tango has had a busy summer on the flat and is on her tenth run of the year – a largely unfruitful sequence.
I backed Beltor in the Triumph hurdle but he came up short on soft ground and will have to put in a mighty performance to figure here on his seasonal bow.
Interestingly, Brian Cooper’s sole ride of the day is the five-year-old Identity Thief for his employers Gigginstown Stud. Trainer Henry de Bromhead expressed his frustration he’s again run into Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins despite making the long trip to the North East, but he goes there for a measure of how good this horse is.
He won well on seasonal debut a month ago and has presumably improved since. As a general 8/1 shot, he’s very unexposed and that Cooper has made the trip is significant.
I can’t resist a bet given the rest of the opposition might not be seen to their best and the favourite hasn’t yet proved his class at this grade.
1pt win Identity Thief @8/1, Newcastle 14:05 (money back as a free bet if second with WillHill)
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