3m6½f Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)
The main talk before the Welsh National was how the ground won’t be it’s usual bottomless self, however it will still be a long slog in the mud and only three horses have carried more than 11 stone to win the race in the last ten years with two of them proper Grade 1 and Grade 2 horses in Native River and Elegant Escape.
Hence, big chances can be given to unexposed types at the bottom-of-the-handicap which is where I am focusing my efforts and I give a big chance to the lightly-raced pair of JUBILEE EXPRESS and ATLANTA BRAVE.
Jubilee Express is trained by previous winner Sam Thomas and whilst his young pretender hasn’t managed a run this season, we know the trainer can prep one for a big race. He looked a proper-type for this after winning a three and a half mile handicap at Haydock in March and comes into this having only raced ten times in his career with four chase starts. Jubilee Express really looks like he will continue to gallop on relentlessly and is hard to ignore with a 3lb claimer in the saddle slightly easing his task.
Atlanta Brave is probably a more nuanced angle into the race. Her trainer Kerry Lee has been part of a family that have trained three of the last 10 winners of this race so they know how to get one ready for it. Atlanta Brave marked himself out as a candidate for it with a strong piece of form in the Mandarin Handicap Chase at Newbury last year over 3m 2f when just going down to Surrey Quest who finished second in the Scottish Grand National. His form tailed off after that in the campaign so maybe that race left a mark for a young horse.
Atlanta Brave relishes soft ground and has also won at this track over hurdles so he ticks the box of being a previous winner at the track. His seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham started ok but faded quickly before being pulled up.
His next start at Uttoxeter was more enthusiastic and he showed up to be better than the bare form might suggest as he was leading all the way to the last before getting crowded out on both sides when jumping it leaving him with no chance at the finish and a well-held fourth. Those runs give you the impression that they have been warming up for this race and a 2lbs drop means he carries a featherweight in 10st 2lbs.
The classier types are all sitting at the top of the handicap in Monbeg Genius, Galia Des Liteaux, and Fontaines Collanges but none of them are bulletproof and have been well-found in the market.
1pt win Jubilee Express @8/1, 14:50 Chepstow, Friday
1pt win Atlanta Brave @12/1, 14:50 Chepstow, Friday