Ascot Saturday tips: Springwell Bay 100/30, Kinondo Kwetu 3/1, Samarrive 12/1, Kaleb 33/1

2m3½f  (2m3f58y) Ascot Racecourse Supports Schools Poetry Competition Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race)  (Class 2)(5yo+)

SPRINGWELL BAY didn’t do much wrong in the Supreme Trial at Cheltenham last year but clearly needed to go up in trip. He was caught a bit flat footed on good ground and lost little in defeat, while he showed a tendency to jump right on occasions so might improve for Ascot. He gets 3lb from his two market rivals today and I’m keen on 3/1 quotes. Attacca is a worthy favourite and has fewer questions to answer, but I do think it’s between them.

1pt win Springwell Bay @100/30, 13:20 Ascot, Saturday

3m  (2m7f180y) Bateaux London Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race)  (Class 1) (5yo+)

I don’t think the market has this one right as KINONDO KWETU has won his last six starts, the latest when a very snug winner at Aintree in October. He jumps brilliantly and does everything right in his races, traveling strongly and only ever doing what he has to – which is perhaps what’s kept him from achieving a higher rating. He’s only got one rival of note to beat and will love this ground. An excellent betting opportunity.

1pt win Kinondo Kwetu @3/1, 13:50 Ascot, Saturday

2m3½f  (2m3f58y) Ascot Racecourse Supports Box4Kids Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)  (Class 2) (4yo+)

This looks difficult but I’m not excited by anything at the top of the market and could make a case for many here. I’m having a swing with the rank outsider KALEB at 33/1, who got no further than the first in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon but had shown solid form prior to that, finishing 6l behind G1 winner Tahmuras at Haydock and running second in his handicap debut at Kempton on Lanzarote Hurdle day. That was an unusual card at Kempton as only four finished in the big handicap and the soft ground shouldn’t have played to Kaleb’s strengths either. He’s by Derby winner Sir Percy whose progeny like good ground, so today’s speedier surface should suit – provided he gets past the first hurdle! – and he’s completely unexposed now up in trip. Another I have had to back is SAMARRIVE for Paul Nicholls despite a disappointing chasing campaign. He’s officially top weight after two handicap wins on good ground at Sandown last year but his 7lb claimer puts him right back in with a competitive mark. In fact, I still think there’s improvement in this horse over hurdles as he jumped them really well last year. I don’t think he’s the yard’s second string as jockey bookings suggest, I just think they want to claim the 7lb to give him his best chance.

1pt win Samarrive @12/1, 15:00 Ascot, Saturday
1pt win Kaleb @28/1, 15:00 Ascot, Saturday

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