Race of the day at Goodwood on Friday looks to be the five-furlong Group Two King George Stakes, where a big and competitive field has assembled with plenty of class.
Course specialist Take Cover, winner of this in 2014 and a neck second last year, is drawn in stall 11 and likely to make the running, so it could pay to be drawn near him and last year’s winner Muthmir is next door in ten.
He’s not really had his ground yet this season but prevalent good ground is definitely in his favour and the 7/1 available is very backable – if the rain stays away.
He’ll have to reverse the form with both Easton Angel and MARSHA after the two three-year-old fillies finished ahead of him at York on a day where late rain might have cost him his chance.
Fillies their age are dangerous at this stage of the season with big weight allowances and both look to be improving.
Marsha’s trainer Sir Mark Prescott was quoted on Thursday saying he wouldn’t want rain, so there are very few negatives given she’s a few doors down from Take Cover and Muthmir in stall eight.
I’m very keen on Easton Angel and fancy that if it were run 10 times she’d win a good share of that York race – but the fact remains Marsha beat her and looks to have a better draw.
Whether Marsha is value at 11/2 is questionable, but she’s the most likely winner for me and the first pick.
The most decorated horse in the race is Goldream, a dual-Group One winner from 2015 who hasn’t been sighted since a disappointing run at Meydan in Dubai because of the soft ground that’s been the theme of this flat season.
If he’s fully wound up he’ll be a huge threat well drawn in stall fourteen and 9/1 would be a really nice price to get stuck into otherwise.
There’s absolutely no point backing this horse if it’s not firm ground, but he’s a gelding (no bollocks so no stud value) and this is a big pot to win.
I’ll wince if he wins but I’ll pass due to the rain that’s fallen on Thursday.
Ryan Moore’s mount Washington DC is a tempting 12/1 and arrives in good, solid form after placed efforts in two Group Ones, the July Cup and Commonwealth Cup.
Market support would be significant but his draw of six doesn’t help by my logic, and others seem more likely to improve.
Group One winner Move In Time was a good third in this last year so likes the track and at 40/1 might be the each-way value if he can rediscover his best form.
The one I like most at a big price is last year’s Gimcrack Stakes winner AJAYA, who has only run once this season, finishing well beaten behind subsequent Commonwealth Cup winner Quiet Reflection over six furlongs.
He’s drawn widest in stall 17, which whilst far from ideal should be the side of the track with the pace and not too bad.
It’s interesting he’s been dropped back to the minimum trip here but not difficult to see why as his best ever performance – the win at York – was on a flat track with a bit of juice in the ground and a ferocious pace set by an American raider, so he looks all speed.
Stepped up to Group One company next time out he ran a good race behind Shalaa in the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket – and I reckon he got outstayed on the day.
That’d suggest five furlongs might be his trip – the entry certainly does anyway – so, only aged three and still unexposed and open to improvement, he could be the each-way value at a big 28/1 and five places offered by SkyBet.
I could make a case for Jungle Cat or Cotai Glory as well, but I won’t.
1pt win Marsha @11/2 or best morning price, 15:45 Goodwood, Friday
0.5pt each-way Ajaya @28/1, 15:45 Goodwood, Friday (5 places with SkyBet)