In racing’s equivalent of Christmas eve, we’re looking forward to tomorrow’s Cheltenham Festival opener: the SkyBet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle won last year in an exceptional renewal by the brilliant Altior.
While Altior will be going for Arkle glory in the second race on the card at odds of 1/3, the Supreme is far less of a formality for MELON, the favourite from Willie Mullins’s yard.
However, the task has become far more straightforward after the notable withdrawals of Moon Racer, who opts to go for the tougher Champion Hurdle on the same day, Neon Wolf, who goes Wednesday’s Neptune, and the injured Betfair Hurdle-second Movewiththetimes.
Suddenly top-class opposition looks thin on the ground, and with each withdrawal the reasons to oppose Melon get a little weaker.
A flat convert who’s only run once in public over hurdles – a facile maiden win – his inexperience has been mocked by doubting punters yet his stable’s formidable reputation is feared by bookmakers, who make him a general 3/1 favourite.
Mullins is a very good judge of his own stable’s pecking order and reckons that, despite the option of several in the race, stable jockey Ruby Walsh had an easy decision to make based on Melon’s work at home.
With Ruby Walsh in the saddle I’m having a hard time buying into the claims of the clear Mullins second-string, Bunk Off Early, as it’s a struggle to remember a time in recent years that Walsh and Mullins have got their pecking order wrong at The Festival.
He’s an exceptional trainer, winning three of the last four renewals and coming second in the other, so his chief hope should always be respected.
In an attempt to quash the claim that Melon’s inexperience will cost him, Mullins also claims the flat-convert is a very good jumper and has plenty of experience over hurdles from his homework.
It’d be some achievement to win the Supreme on the back of one maiden win over hurdles, but the stable vibes are strong and, whilst I have been readying myself to take him on all winter, with all the withdrawals I can no longer argue his place as favourite.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’s Ballyandy is the chief hope from Britain after his taking win in the Betfair Hurdle last month and has proven himself around Cheltenham.
Last year’s Champion Bumper winner should also go on any ground so it’s not easy to find holes in his claims, however I point to his very patchy record and short price as the main negatives.
He’s actually only ever won once over hurdles and was a big disappointment for connections behind Moon Racer twice before Christmas, while he failed to land the odds when placing fourth behind Bacardys in Aintree’s big bumper race last season.
Whilst clearly talented, I see this hot and cold horse as no more solid than the totally unexposed Melon.
Supreme Novices’ generally have strength in depth, but in recent memory it has paid to stick with those at the top of the market and, given this year mightn’t be the deepest, I’m in no hurry to back something at a longer price for the sake of it.
There are a few of interest at longer odds, such as Newbury winner High Bridge – but that horse won’t have the benefit of a 7lb claimer in this Grade 1 and he only beat Azzerti a couple of lengths the last day, who then laboured to win next time out in a slow time as a long odds-on favourite.
If there was one to upset the favourites, I’d say Nicky Henderson’s River Wylde looks the likeliest at 9/1 after his Dovecote Hurdle win last month.
He’s unbeaten over hurdles and jumps them well, whilst he clearly possesses some speed and should enjoy the forecast good-to-soft conditions.
I’d say he’s the each-way value in the race, though recent renewals have taught me to take a single-minded approach to the Supreme, as it’s a race where the cream almost always rise to the top.
SkyBet offer an excellent concession that gives you your stake back as a free bet should your bet fail to win, so I recommend you take the albeit-short-looking 3/1 about Melon with that firm and get your Festival off to a flyer.
Note that the best prices are always around 10am on the day of the race, so be patient and you might find some 4/1.
1pt win Melon @3/1, 13:30 Cheltenham, Tuesday (SkyBet)
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