Our strong form continued into Thursday with Pleascach landing the Yorkshire Oaks at 8/1. Turning to Friday, the Group Two Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup has attracted a classy field of stayers, with five or six having great chances.
The 4/1 favourite, Clever Cookie, was simply outclassed in the King George and looks awful value. He gave Tac De Boistron 7lbs when winning at Chester in May and that form will surely be reversed off level weights. There’s no way Marco Botti’s multiple-Group One winner should be twice the price, especially with solid course form to boot. He wasn’t seen to his best when last of twelve in Ascot Gold Cup, but the ground was lightning fast and there’s no comparison, really.
The winner that day, Trip To Paris (11/2), has won twice on good to soft, so he gets it, and with his Group One penalty he looks closely matched with Big Orange (5/1) on recent Goodwood form – the two crossed the line in a photo, with Big Orange coming out on top. The penalty remains and just half a point separates the two in the market.
Another half-point further back is 6/1 shot Mizzou, who ran a respectable race when four lengths back in the Gold Cup. With his sire Galileo not renowned for stayers, the extra four furlongs probably stretched him and back to 16 furlongs he should be more competitive. He’s also already won on soft and his sire’s love of some cut suggests conditions could be a plus. His neck defeat by Big Orange at Ascot puts nothing between the three, but the way he finished that race suggested he’d hold the upper hand over today’s longer trip.
With such an even market, I’m going to stick to my guns and back the horse open to the most improvement. That rules out the eight-year-old Tac De Boistron, and I’d be surprised if Trip To Paris can top his Ascot success under the penalty, so off he goes. Mizzou might just find tomorrow’s trip and conditions perfect, while his relative freshness – this being his third start this year – could give him the edge over the in-from Big Orange.
1Pt Win Mizzou @6/1, Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup, York 14:30 (Money back as a free bet if second with Paddy Power)
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