Royal Ascot winner Without Parole bids for back-to-back Group One successes in the Sussex Stakes over a mile at Goodwood on Wednesday, but I wasn’t particularly impressed by his win in the St James’ Palace Stakes so I’m taking him on.
The round course was tough for closers all week as the ground was too quick for the horses up front to come back at them, and Without Parole was always racing prominently, perhaps enjoying the run of the race.
Make no mistake, he’s very good and I’m not doubting he’s by far the most likely winner, but I have enough doubts over his form to take him on at the prices.
He didn’t win with much in hand from Gustav Klimt at Royal Ascot, who was trained for the 2000 Guineas back in May and has hardly improved since, so if the O’Brien runner simply held his form then I don’t think the Royal Ascot form is particularly strong.
That comment also includes the Queen Anne Stakes form which is represented by Beat The Bank, Lightning Spear and Lord Glitters.
Beat The Bank was unlucky in that race and proved that next time out when narrowly getting the better of Lord Glitters in the Summer Mile at the same track, so he arrives in good form and would be the pick of the trio for me – Lord Glitters probably needs some rain.
However, I have doubts about their class and suspect that, if there is one lurking, they’re all vulnerable to a young improver.
The two likely candidates would be Expert Eye and ORBAAN, and the latter’s 25/1 price seals my vote.
Expert Eye was dynamite at Royal Ascot when winning the Jersey Stakes and he was equally good at Goodwood as a two-year-old, after which his reputation took two hits when bombing at the idiosyncratic Newmarket.
Away from Newmarket he’s been top-class however, crucially, he’s not yet proven he stays a mile, and for that reason I couldn’t possibly back him at 5/2; it doesn’t seem to be factored into the price.
Orbaan comes over from France and represents Andre Fabre’s yard – and he rarely sends them over without a chance, often in search of fast ground – so it might be worth taking it on trust he has a realistic chance.
25/1 jumps out as big against what’s hardly a vintage generation of milers, of which it’s debateable the best of them have even turned up – remember we’ve not even got a single horse from the first five home in the last two renewals of the 2000 Guineas in this field – so an upset could well be on the cards.
1pt win Orbaan @25/1, 15:35 Goodwood, Wednesday
Leave a comment