Reve De Sivola has won the last three renewals of this Grade 1 staying hurdle, though this looks a much tougher renewal than last year, where he looked fortunate to beat the idling Zarkandar.
At a glance, it looks a two-horse race this season, with World Hurdle second Saphir Du Rheu and recent Newbury winner Thistlecrack heading the market with strong claims.
It’s close between the two, but Thistlecrack‘s ability to handle any ground – he romped home to Grade 1 success at Aintree in the spring – and his eye-catching seasonal bow in defeat of the current World Hurdle champ Cole Harden are the hallmarks of a high-class horse.
He looks certain to improve for the run and that is ominous for the opposition, particularly Deputy Dan, who was behind at Newbury and had already had a run. At 3/1 he’s the one to be on.
Saphir Du Rheu is classy, but there’s not a huge amount of confidence coming from the yard for his second return to hurdles and at 9/4 he’s probably no value.
Dynaste also returns to hurdles after finding the staying chasing division, in particular Cue Card, too strong.
He won’t be winning a Gold Cup nowadays so connections might feel the World Hurdle market is wide open and a more suitable target.
At 14/1 it’s the biggest price he’s been for a few years and he’s achieved more than anything in opposition – most notably his Ryanair success two years ago – so looks overpriced.
Taglietelle is stepping up in class as the handicapper has got him well held. I don’t think he’s up to this.
Alan King’s five-year-old Karazak has a remarkable record of only one victory and no less than twelve second places from 17 runs, and he steps up in trip significantly today.
At three miles he’s totally unexposed and his consistency is encouraging for an each-way bet, where there being eight runners is a big positive as it pays three places.
His age entitles him to improvement and he arrives race fit, so 50/1 looks a whopping price for a horse of that profile, and it’s worth a few quid.
1pt win Thistlecrack @3/1 (Betfred), Ascot 14:25
0.25pts ew Karazak @50/1 (BetVictor), Ascot 14:25