Warwick hosts a nice card today with the Grade-2 Leamington Novices’ Hurdle attracting two Irish raiders from the all-conquering Mullins yard.
Neither are favourite as that accolade goes to the Skeltons’ Born Survivor, who won well last time out in a race where the second has since bolted up to frank the form.
There’s a strong look to the form, but 2/1 seems very short as he looks perfectly beatable.
We put up Mullins’s Open Eagle over Christmas, where he found Altior’s pace too hot to handle but was comfortably best of the rest – a run that, on the advice of Ruby Walsh, has led to him being upped in trip.
Though he has to overcome a 3lb penalty, 13/2 looks a nice each-way price for a horse that travels well and will appreciate the conditions of the race – he likes heavy ground and might have found Kempton too quick last time out.
Mullins also runs Thomas Hobson in the Rich Ricci silks, who was a likeable performer for John Gosden on the flat and appears to have taken well to hurdles with two wins and a place from his four starts.
Jumping appears to be his vice but, in his trainer’s words, he ‘has loads of ability’ though ‘is not an easy ride at all’.
My concern is his free running tendencies will not suit the heavy ground and those behind will come back at him.
Despite this, he might be the class horse in the race and I can’t find much wrong with his 6/1 price.
One who appeals at the bottom of the weights is Ballagh, who receives as much as 7lbs from the Mullins duo and 4lbs from the rest of the field.
Effective on heavy ground, his stand-out piece of form is in last year’s renewal, where he chased home the smart Three Musketeers – an impressive Grade-2 winner at Newbury this season.
This would be his second run of the season after a creditable third behind what’s probably a Grade-1 winner in waiting, O O Seven.
He was entitled to need the run and, should he have come on for it, a record of five placed runs from eight, course form and a light weight are all positive for his each-way chances at 16/1.
Of the rest, Final Nudge is of most interest but I’m not sure we can expect much improvement on his fifth run of the season, and I think he’ll need it here.
It’s a wide-open race so I’m taking two from the field and siding with Thomas Hobson to win and Ballagh each-way as both are live chances at nice prices.
1pt win Thomas Hobson @6/1 (various), Warwick 15:00
0.5pt each-way Ballagh @16/1 (Bet365), Warwick 15:00