1pt win Tuesday @13/2, 1pt win Toy @28/1, 17:50 Keeneland, Saturday

1m1½f  (1m1f110y) Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf)  (3yo+)

This race revolves around Nashwa running to form, as over 10f she has arguably been the best filly in Europe this season – if only just. She’s got a great draw and broke well in the French Oaks, so there’s no reason to doubt she can bag a nice position on the rail and run her race, but this is not a meeting to be punting shorties in such competitive races. They start turning almost immediately after the gates and I can’t see how wide draws can get up with the speed, which rules out most of the home team including In Italian, who has little chance of executing her preferred tactics. Above The Curve is a big unit who needs a long straight and that doesn’t bode well for her at the start where she needs to be away quickly, or round these tight bends. The archetype is a compact horse, nimble round the bends with a bit of tactical speed and, coupled with the fact they had two winners yesterday, I struggle to escape the claims of the Aidan O’Brien pair TUESDAY and TOY who both fit that mould. Tuesday’s best form is over further but it does entitle her to be the highest rated horse in the race, and the vibes are positive. I can’t dismiss her stablemate either, a full sister to Gleneagles who is yet to make a mark at Group One level but runs here still unexposed at 28/1. Her best run this summer came on good ground and she’s been mostly campaigned on softer going to date not having much of a knee action, so there’s every chance she can thrive in these conditions. I like that she’s proven over a mile and breaks smartly, and she should be peaking following a mid-summer break.

1pt win Tuesday @13/2, 17:50 Keeneland, Saturday
1pt win Toy @28/1, 17:50 Keeneland, Saturday

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