Doctor Harper is 5/1 favourite for the Kim Muir, which seems an awfully short price for a handicap of this magnitude. His opening mark might be lenient, but the form of his only success over fences looks poor, dispatching of two horses rated 133 and 124 respectively. The form has hardly been franked since with neither running any sort of race in their next three combined weak outings.
We can expect improvement from him as he steps up in trip for the first time in a chase race, based on his hurdles form over longer distances. However, his two previous runs at Cheltenham have been shockers, and I’m not convinced his 5l defeat to Garde La Victoire is as good as it seems given how heavy the conditions were.
This will also be the first time he tackles a trip of more than 3m so his stamina will be firmly tested. He must be respected, but given the number of negatives, he looks poor value at the current prices.
Messieurs O’Connor, O’Neill, and McManus have already successfully combined this week to claim the National Hunt chase on Minella Rocco, and we fancy that jockey-trainer-owner combination to claim a quick double on Thursday.
The result of that race demonstrated the advantage of having a top amateur rider with Katie Walsh and Nina Carberry filling two of the other place spots. Derek O’Connor is a quality amateur, and it is a major positive that he will take the ride on UPSWING.
I have been waiting to see where Upswing would pop up having failed to handle the extremely heavy conditions in the Welsh Grand National. This must have been the target for several months now with the ground finally coming good.
Jonjo O’Neill has already been fairly shrewd this week with his handicap entries, highlighted by the likes of Holywell running a blinder off a reduced mark on Tuesday, and he has another one here who could be ahead of the handicapper.
Upswing is only rated 3lbs higher than his penultimate start at a mark of 139, and he could have plenty of scope for that to go higher. That certainly looked to be the case when he just failed to chase home Sausalito Sunrise – who raced off a mark of 163 last time behind Many Clouds – over 3m 3f on gd-sft ground here in November, and with only five chase starts under his belt, he remains extremely unexposed.
It might also be worth taking a chance on Willie Mullin’s SAMBREMONT. He already has a Grade 2 success to his name this season having beaten Ttebob at Navan last time out. That wasn’t the deepest affair for a Grade 2 with only three runners entered and one falling at the last.
But he has been on the upgrade and putting that run in to context is the fact that Ttebob had at one point been fancied to give Douvan a race at Leopardstown earlier in the season. Sambremont won at Navan having been as much as 15 lengths behind him at one point, before staying on, so a slower gallop and a step up in trip should suit. In fact, the only horse that has beat him this campaign was stablemate Black Hercules – now engaged in the JLT Chase – in his opening chase start.
All of his chase form is over 2m-2m 4f, but he has raced over 3m in two hurdle attempts on good ground last year where he ran with credit. This six-year-old is gaining experience and he looks a much better chaser than hurdler, so considering he remains unexposed over the larger obstacles and at a stiff trip the 16/1 is worth a nibble each-way.
1pt win Upswing @9/1, 17:30 Cheltenham (Skybet)
0.5pt EW Sambremont @16/1, 17:30 Cheltenham (Skybet pay 1/4 odds for 1,2,3 and 4 places)