The New One may have flopped again but I doubt his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies envisaged his Festival week going this well by the half-way point.
The second half of the week could get off to a flyer if his BRISTOL DE MAI can justify ante-post favouritism in the opening JLT Novices’ Chase and notch the stable a third Grade 1 of the week, to go along with Ballyandy’s Bumper win and Blaklion’s RSA Chase.
His stable’s red-hot form is the clincher in this competitive two-mile-three novices’ chase, and 5/1 is a nice price.
Bristol De Mai has already won two Grade 1 races and his excellent jumping over fences gives him an outstanding chance of adding another over a trip that’s ideal.
After being outpaced by Ar Mad over two miles at Sandown before Christmas he’s taken his chasing form to a new level over two-and-a-half miles.
Two years the selection’s senior, warm order in the market is likely SP favourite Garde La Victoire for the Hobbs team, who are in confident mood having beaten the selection twice before over shorter trips.
I don’t take that too literally though, as one was a hurdle race where he was just a juvenile and the other was Bristol De Mai’s seasonal and fencing début.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’s novice has improved so much since and, aged five, the sky is the limit with the promise of more to come.
The powerful Mullins yard runs two.
Their biggest chance is Outlander, who’s unbeaten over fences but I’m sceptical he’s beaten much in doing so; he’s fairly easy to oppose at 5/1.
The Mullins stable is not in my good books this week after a series of switched targets for some of my Cheltenham fancies, like Vautour, Thomas Hobson and Black Hercules, who runs in this rather than the RSA Chase.
He’s been dropped back from a potential four-mile assignment to this intermediate trip, presumably just to give Ruby Walsh a ride in the race.
At 5/1 I’m not interested as he looks more like a three-mile chaser, and there’s going to be far more pace in this race than he might like – though he certainly isn’t slow as he placed in the Bumper a few years ago.
Bookmakers reported serious cash for Zabana for this race before Outlander beat him in Ireland, and it’s hard to read that gamble as not going tits up given all the money was wagered in the 24 hours beforehand – they must have expected a win and his price for this to collapse; the opposite happened.
He does have nice Cheltenham form having placed under a big weight in last year’s Coral Cup on similar ground, but this is a higher-class race.
Three Musketeers and L’Ami Serge are live contenders and add depth to a wide-open race, but they are probably shy of top-class and will probably need to be.
It’s a close call between Bristol De Mai, Outlander and the riskier profile of Zabana, but, if in doubt, we’ll always look for the young improver.
1pt win Bristol De Mai @5/1, 13:30 Cheltenham, Thursday
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