It’s less than a month until jump racing’s biggest week, the Cheltenham Festival, and most of the betting markets have taken shape.
Many horses remain in multiple races and there’s often plenty of value in guessing where they end up, as that uncertainty keeps the prices out.
Some punters avoid the fancy prices, but I’m not one of them.
Last year I took a nice slice of the 27/1 Coneygree was trading on Betfair after his connections repeatedly touted the Gold Cup his target, before he won that memorable renewal.
It can pay to listen closely to the connections of horses in the ever-noisier media coverage of the Festival, as you can find yourselves ahead of the bookies and quids-in.
One market with plenty of question marks around its participants is the four-mile National Hunt Chase, currently headed by BLACK HERCULES at 4/1.
I really like this horse and I think he might deserve a crack at the Grade-1 RSA Chase over three miles, which is the current alternative.
The form of his Warwick win is good, with Definitely Red running well in defeat to RSA third-favourite Blaklion a few weeks back.
He was out again this weekend when looking like he had a Navan Grade 2 sewn up, before falling at the last after what had otherwise been a very good round of jumping.
Despite that fall, his accurate, economic jumping remains a big asset and he certainly has a big engine.
He’s called Black Hercules for good reason, as he’s a tank of a horse and has the physique of a three-mile chaser, so it’s no surprise the switch to fences has seen him step up on his hurdles form.
Owner Graham Wylie gave a pretty thorough interview on his various Cheltenham runners and I was intrigued by his comments on Black Hercules after his fall at Navan:
“Ruby said his jumping was superb, obviously up until the last fence. He had plenty of horse under him, he got in low, hit the top and just crumpled on landing. Just a novicey mistake.
“I spoke to Willie this morning and he said ‘The horse isn’t slow, he’s actually quite fast’ and the report from Ruby yesterday was that if he was in the RSA, he wouldn’t show you up, he’d run a big race. It’s very much options open – we’ll make that decision nearer the time.
“From where I’m sitting he’s got a great chance in the National Hunt Chase. We’ve never tried him over four miles, but we do think he’d stay. But Willie is convinced he’d run a big race in the RSA, so we’ll see.”
It certainly sounds like Mullins and Walsh fancy his chances in the RSA, so consider Wylie said this on the topic of Nichols Canyon, who also has multiple Festival targets:
“The truth is that Ruby has ridden the horse quite a few times, Willie trains him every day, those two boys know which is the best race for him and I just leave it to them. They know far more about the quality of the horse and his chance than I ever could.”
If Mullins and Walsh want him in the RSA – surprisingly they don’t have another obvious horse for the race – you’d think the above statement suggests they’ll get their way, and the current 25/1 offered by Paddy Power starts to look generous.
Another twist with potential ramifications is Black Hercules’s likely pilot in the four-miler, an amateur riders’ race, is Danny Mullins, who has been ruled out for the season with a knee injury.
The Mullins yard has no shortage of options, but it’s a blow nonetheless and certainly a positive for his RSA chances – get well soon Danny.
Of the potential opposition, No More Heroes is a worthy favourite but second-in-the-betting More Of That‘s chasing form in isolation reads no better than the selection, and Blaklion is quite closely matched with a line through Definitely Red.
He’s a live chance and would probably be a fair bet at around 8/1, which means for 25/1 to be of value he’d have to be better than 7/4 to participate, which is a tight call but one I’m willing to take.
To mitigate that risk I’m splitting my bet between the two races with a saver on the four-miler, where the 4/1 available is very fair.
0.75pt win Black Hercules to win the RSA Chase @25/1 with Paddy Power
0.25pt win Black Hercules to win the National Hunt Chase @4/1 (various)