The 2017 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf looks a cracker, with Europe holding a strong hand by sending over five Group One winners.
The draw has been unkind to Rhododendron, Aidan O’Brien’s dual-Group One winner, as she’s parked out in stall 14 and has it all to do from there.
She’s got the best form of the Europeans but 4/1 is a smelly price given the draw, so she’s easily passed.
Queen’s Trust won this last year in a photo finish from 2015 heroine Lady Eli, however that was over a furlong further than this at a mile-and-a-quarter and she might need that extra distance to hit top gear.
She’s been out of form but has a viable excuse, given she’s run on ground with soft in the description for the whole season and we know she’s likes it quick.
Lady Eli, on the other hand, has been in fine form of late, bagging two Group Ones this year.
She is a very worthy favourite and a fairly backable price at 4/1, given the step back in trip is probably a positive for her whereas others might not want it.
She’s drawn midfield and has every chance, but I can’t say I rate the form of last year’s nose-second to Queen’s Trust particularly highly, and she’s not won with much in hand in any of her victories this season either.
I’m not sure she’s the force of old, and there doesn’t appear to be much between most of the other American fillies with Cambodia, Dacita, Goodyearforroses, Zipessa and War Flag appearing closely matched – visually anyway.
The one I like is GRAND JETE for Chad Brown at 14/1.
She changed stable from France to join Brown this year and announced her arrival with two facile and eye-catching wins in lower grades, before she met trouble in running in the Group One Beverley D at Arlington this summer and was no doubt an unlucky loser behind her stablemate Dacita.
After a 57-day break she returned to the track, stepped up in trip for the Flower Bowl Stakes at Belmont.
There was no pace in the race so she ended up making the running and not lasting home, with today’s opponent WAR FLAG getting up to win in the final furlong.
War Flag is drawn in stall one today and definitely looks overpriced at 33/1 on that evidence, so she’s a very lively outside chance.
Back to Grand Jete, the second half of her campaign looks to have been built around this race and, unlike others, the nine-furlong trip looks ideal as well as the rattling fast ground.
Stall eight is a little wide but most of her market rivals are outside her, so it’s not too much of a negative.
Of the remainder, it’s only the wide draw and step back in trip that stops me backing Pretty Polly-winner Nezwaah for Roger Varian.
She’ll love the ground and is an attractive price at 16/1, but there are far more solid bets on offer in an extremely-competitive race.
0.75pts each-way Grand Jete @14/1, 21:00 Del Mar, Saturday (1,2,3,4, 1/5)
0.5pts each-way War Flag @33/1, 21:00 Del Mar, Saturday (1,2,3,4, 1/5)