As the media noise around the Cheltenham Festival bubbles and the form book gradually takes shape, ante-post prices fluctuate and we’re keeping a keen eye on the prices of our selections.
Tombstone @20/1 (now 16/1), Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Tuesday 15th March
As predicted, the 20/1 didn’t last too long and he’s been trimmed to a fairer-looking 16/1.
He should run again before the Festival, but we’re not sure where or when yet.
Ar Mad @16/1, Arkle Challenge Chase, Tuesday 15th March
No change in the prices as this remains a one-horse book.
At the current prices, if Douvan and Ar Mad both lined up it’d be a no brainer where to put your money, however there remains doubt about the latter’s participation given his tendency to jump right.
“Ar Mad is grand, but he’s on a break at the minute, simply because there are no races for him now until Cheltenham.
The only options are the Clarence House (Ascot) or the Game Spirit (Newbury) and I don’t want him taking on those out of novice company.
There’s the Lightning Stakes at Doncaster but I’d rather find out about the left-handed thing at Cheltenham.
I’ve spoken to a lot of people I respect about this and some say he’ll be fine and others say to stick to what you know.
If he didn’t go to Cheltenham, there are races at Leopardstown and Fairyhouse for him but he’d never want the ground too quick.” – Ar Mad’s trainer, Gary Moore
So it’s not only going left-handed but also the ground that could force his withdrawal, though nothing has changed per se, and the above certainly suggests the Arkle is the plan so we remain hopeful.
Simonsig @20/1 (now 16/1), Queen Mother Champion Chase, Wednesday March 16th
Really good news on this one with Henderson suggesting they’ll get a prep run in the shape of the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury next month.
“Simonsig could run in the Game Spirit. He is getting there and we’re making progress. He was cantering away all last week.” – Nicky Henderson
That news alone has seen his price come in, and a solid performance at Newbury will see it collapse as punters and bookmakers won’t have forgotten his exploits as a novice.
A potential threat is his entry in the Ryanair, particularly as Henderson already has Sprinter Sacre in the Champion Chase, though the Game Spirit is run over the minimum distance and Barry Gerraghty doesn’t have a ride in the two-mile showpiece.
Camping Ground @10/1 (now 9/1), World Hurdle, Thursday 17th March
He’s been trimmed presumably because of some market support but his potential meeting with Thistlecrack in the Cleeve Hurdle on trials day will be the acid test.
Should he win he could go favourite and only a shocker would see him drift significantly – so we’re fairly safe in that sense.
Martello Tower @25/1 (now 20/1), World Hurdle, Thursday 17th March
Runs this Thursday in the Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran and a big performance will surely be required if he’s to have any chance in the big one.
Connections were very pleased at Leopardstown so we’re hopeful.
Sceau Royal @16/1, Cheltenham Gold Cup, Friday 18th March
Jockey Daryl Jacob was glowing in his praise of Sceau Royal this week, but the market hasn’t reacted – yet.
“Sceau Royal must be one of the fastest jumpers I’ve ever ridden and he didn’t put a foot wrong when winning the Chatteris Fen Juvenile Hurdle last Friday,” said Jacob, speaking in the Monday Jury in the Racing Post.
“He’s getting more and more professional in his races and he’s the best British horse in the Triumph picture at the moment. There’s a long way to go but I’m very excited by him.” – Daryl Jacob
Unless something fast and Irish reveals itself over the next eight weeks I fully expect this price to collapse to around the 6/1 mark.
Curiously, favourite Ivanovich Gorbatov was trimmed from 7/2 to 3/1 this week, so either someone knows something we don’t or the whole world’s gone mad – he’s only raced once, and it wasn’t exactly world-beating.
Vautour @10/1 (now 8/1), Cheltenham Gold Cup, Friday 18th March
Mullins remains very keen to run him, though he’s still entered in the Ryanair Chase the day before – this is good news and his revised price reflects this.
I suspect it’ll be the weather forecast that has the biggest influence as a slog in the mud won’t suit him.
If Ruby Walsh does opt for Vautour over Djakadam – who is due to run at Cheltenham on trials day – he might go off favourite and we’ll be well in.
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