The best European two-year-old sprinters contest a wide-open Prix Morny at Deauville this afternoon, and a case can be made for most. The one I’m least keen on is the favourite Earthlight, on account of the borderline-heavy ground. He’s by Shamardal whose progeny usually hate cut, and that’s reason enough to take him on at that price. Three Royal Ascot winners then vie for second-favouritism at 4/1 and A’Ali probably has the most to prove. His Norfolk Stakes win was over a shorter trip and the form looks the weakest. I can’t shake the feeling that Coventry Stakes winner Arizona won’t be fully wound up for this after two months off, but Raffle Prize looks a horse with serious potential. His pedigree favours both soft ground and sprint trips, so coming off breaking a Newmarket track record I would expect a huge run. He’s been well found now in the market, though, and it’s thin value at best at 100/30. Golden Horde was a nice winner for us at Goodwood but I can’t fancy him on soft ground as his sire hated it, and I’m having another go at our big-priced second selection from that race, ROYAL DORNOCH, who ran brilliantly to finish third. He’s improving rapidly and I suspect he will be stepped up in trip soon, but he’s 33/1 – and bigger on the exchanges – and at the very least I’d expect him to outrun those odds. Soft ground is a concern but his sire Gleneagles has already provided a Royal Ascot winner on similar going, and I suspect he won’t be found wanting for stamina. Well worth a roll of the dice.
1pt win Royal Dornoch @33/1, 14:50 Deauville, Sunday
This looks a good betting race and it’s difficult to dispute the favourite Coronet’s form with regards to her 2/1 price, but there’s plenty capable of beating her now down in trip. Wild Illusion is very capable on her day and is a nice price at 5/1 if she can show her best form, which has been absent this season. With potentially heavy ground a market leveller we could see some surprises, and I like SPIRIT OF NELSON‘s chances of upsetting the odds. She showed a really nice turn of foot to come from last to first to beat Musis Amica in Listed company last time out, and has shown some form with cut in the ground. At 25/1 she might have been underestimated and I would prefer a closer in these conditions to something trying to make all. I’m a little wary of each-way betting as only one more horse needs to be withdrawn for the terms to change to paying two places, so it’s a win-only bet for me.
1pt win Spirit Of Nelson @25/1, 15:25 Deauville, SundayLeave a comment