Dubai World Cup card tips: Storm Damage, Casa Creed, Lord North, Authority, Stella Veloce

1m  Godolphin Mile Sponsored By Nakheel (Group 2) (Dirt)  (3yo+)

Having lowered the Meydan 7f track record not once but twice this season, STORM DAMAGE is surely the best horse in this race based off his turf form. The big question is whether he can translate that to the dirt and stay the mile – a trip he won at twice as a three-year-old. His run style will suit as he likes to get to the front and dominate his races, while his sire Night Of Thunder is himself by Dubawi, who has sired Dubai World Cup winners and also the favourite for this race. Storm Damage won on debut on the all weather at Kempton so he’s handled different surfaces before, and his draw in stall seven of 16 isn’t prohibitive. If he can get to the front I can’t see him beaten and 9/1 feels plenty too big. It’s got to be win only as if he doesn’t handle the dirt – still a distinct possibility despite the strong fancy – he won’t get near the leaders.

1pt win Storm Damage @9/1, 12:20 Meydan, Saturday

6f  Al Quoz Sprint Sponsored By Azizi Developments (Group 1) (Turf)  (3yo+)

It’s difficult to see past Man Of Promise if he arrives in the same form as last time out when zooming home from A Case Of You over course and distance. That marked him as a top notch international sprinter. However, the market has obviously seen him coming and taking short prices in sprints rarely pays dividends. My rule of thumb in this race is back the Americans, who generally have the world’s best sprinters along with the Australians. No Aussies this year and clearly the USA’s number one hope is CASA CREED, drawn perfectly on the stand side rail where there’s appeared to be a bias all season. Whilst his form suggests trips around a mile are his best, there’s no doubt his best performance last season was cosily winning a Grade 1 over this trip. He’s had a lovely warm up run in Riyadh when a fast finishing second and he’s got to be the each-way play here.

1pt each-way Casa Creed @10/1, 13:35 Meydan, Saturday (1-5, 1/5)

1m1f  Dubai Turf Sponsored By DP World (Group 1) (Turf)  (3yo+)

A race packed full of Group One winners from different corners of the world and I think the market has this about right with Schnell Meister favourite from last year’s winner LORD NORTH, who looks the value at 11/2. It was a poor renewal last year but the body of Lord North’s form is more compelling and it was only a throat infection that kept him off the track last summer and not an injury. If turning up in the same form he has to be overpriced.

1pt win Lord North @11/2, 15:20 Meydan, Saturday

1m4f  (1m4f11y) Longines Dubai Sheema Classic (Group 1) (Turf)  (3yo+)

Race of the day. Yibir was brilliant in the Breeders’ Cup and has been a revelation since being gelded, but there are reasons to be against him here. It’s his first start of a long season and the bare form of his Breeders’ Cup success underwhelms, whilst he looks a really strong stayer and this race often goes to a 10f horse. I’m taking sides with the Japanese again and think the Japan Cup form where Contrail led home AUTHORITY and a slightly unlucky Shahryar looks the best in the race. Authority has never won a Group One but beat a good field at Riyadh this year so arrives race fit. He also reopposes Shahryar off marginally better terms so it’s no given the favourite, who hasn’t run since, will reverse the form. Shahryar won the Japanese Derby but STELLA VELOCE was less than two lengths back in third. He got revenge on softer ground next time out and has since been labeled a bit of a mudlark, but I’m not buying that. Chrono Genesis was a narrow second in this race last year and Stella Veloce looks her form equal having gone down to that opponent by just half a length in Japan’s biggest race, the Arima Kinen. The form book says there’s very little between the three Japanese runners but that’s not reflected in the market and I’m siding with the two bigger prices. Now watch the favourite go and win!

1pt win Authority @13/2, 1pt win Stella Veloce @9/1, 15:55 Meydan, Saturday

Leave a comment

Send a Comment

Your email address will not be published.