The 16:20 at Fairyhouse looks wide open, with the favourite Dedigout 10 years old and there to be shot at after an underwhelming seasonal reappearance.
Second favourite Taglietelli ran very well at Cheltenham in the Pertemps Final, shouldering top-weight, and has a highly-consistent profile.
However, this might come too soon and he’s not got much, if anything, in hand over GWENCILY BERBAS, who in receipt of 4lb finished narrowly ahead of him in a Grade 1 before Christmas.
The form of that race is working out really well and Gwencily Berbas will be warm order today, as he got to within a length of eventual World Hurdle-second Alpha Des Obeaux that time, with the classy Arctic Fire a handful of lengths in front and a subsequent winner Snow Falcon in behind.
There’s a really solid look to that form and he’s likely to run well at a nice price of 4/1, but he has to concede plenty of weight to Dan Skelton’s raider VALUE AT RISK, who has always been very well thought of but has struggled to live up to the hype on the track.
He’d given novice chasing a go this season with little success, falling on both starts over fences, but Skelton has switched him back to hurdles since and seen a definite – if unspectacular – improvement.
On his first start over timber this season he ran a poor race on deep ground at Ascot, but his trainer points out he only completed and aggregate six furlongs of his two chase starts and would probably have needed the run.
He then went some way to confirming that with a two-length defeat by Baoulet Delaroque at Huntingdon, when giving him 8lb – which reads fairly well as that horse completed a hat-trick of wins that day and went on to run well in the Coral Cup at the Festival, beaten under three lengths.
He will need to improve on that to win today, but his good bumper form and the promise of his novice hurdle days suggests there’s plenty of talent there to be unlocked.
He’s been warmly backed this morning into 7/2, but Paddy Power still offer 4/1 and such market confidence might be telling, though it’s hard to ignore the claims and solid place-potential of Gwencily Berbas, so we’re looking to double up.
Prior to that on the same card in the Grade 2 novices’ hurdle at 15:15, SUTTON PLACE looks to have an outstanding chance of following up his surprise win at Naas with victory here.
He brushed aside the re-opposing Royal Caviar by six lengths that time, and a collateral form-line through Ball D’Arc, whom Royal Caviar found three lengths too good on his previous start, looks the clincher.
Today’s main market rival is Moon Over Germany, who found Ball D’Arc two lengths too good last time out, suggesting the ease at which Sutton Place beat Royal Caviar might have him held.
Sutton Place looks open to any amount of improvement and can take this step up in grade in his stride.
The selections combine for an each-way double, paying 14/1 with Paddy Power and 15/1 with Boylesports, where the horses placing would return a small profit.
0.5pt each-way double Sutton Place (15:15), Value At Risk (16:20) @14/1, Fairyhouse, Monday
0.5pt each-way double Sutton Place (15:15), Gwencily Berbas (16:20) @15/1, Fairyhouse, Monday