1m1f Race 7 – Dubai Turf Sponsored By DP World (Group 1) (Turf) (3yo+)
This is a great market for a bet as some really classy horses are trading double digit prices and the top two in the market are far from superstars. Do Deuce has shown his best form over longer trips and his best doesn’t really entitle him to be fav here. Godolphin’s Measured Time has a lot to prove given his form is nowhere near the level required – I do like him as he can obviously step forward again but the price isn’t right. Lord North has won the past four renewals but this looks a deeper race and father time has already started slowing him down at eight years old – RPRs gave him the same mark of 122 on all four successes. There are two obvious bets here at big prices. Firstly Hong Kong’s VOYAGE BUBBLE‘s domestic form puts him bang there with the best of these, especially Luxembourg, as they’ve both gone down a neck to Romantic Warrior in Hong Kong Group Ones in recent starts. This horse looks full of speed and is very effective over a mile and over 10f, which is exactly what you need on this speedy track. He arrives here hard fit after four starts this winter and has to have a huge chance. Secondly NAMUR from Japan is a huge price at 18/1. She was in the same Hong Kong race mentioned but had a wide draw and raced far too wide and from the back to win. To finish where she did was a huge run. Domestically in Japan she won a Grade 1 over a mile and there’s no doubting she has the speed for this test.
1pt win Namur @18/1, 15:10 Meydan, Saturday
1pt win Voyage Bubble @8/1, 15:10 Meydan, Saturday
1m4f (1m4f11y) Race 8 – Longines Dubai Sheema Classic (Group 1) (Turf) (3yo+)
Another belter full of international talent. At the prices I’m against Auguste Rodin on his first run of the year as O’Brien runners never seem to turn up fully tuned to this meeting. The British have an excellent record in this race and I reckon EMILY UPJOHN is the one to be on for the Gosdens. She’s got an excellent record fresh and looked Arc class when winning the Coronation Cup as a four-year-old. However, her form has tailed off each season and she was put away after a disappointing run in Ascot’s King George with Gosden earmarking her for this race from a long way out. She’s fared well with her draw in stall four and both official ratings and RPRs agree she’s got outstanding claims with her mares’ allowance. The Japanese have made a habit of winning this race in recent years and you’d have to respect Liberty Island’s chances after her excellent three-year-old season which included a Triple Tiara win in fillies’ classics and a second to Equinox in Japan’s biggest race. However she was getting 4lb from STARS ON EARTH that day and now meets on 3lb worse terms with only a length in hand. Lightly raced five-year-old Stars On Earth followed up her excellent third behind Equinox with a second in the Arima Kinen and on both starts she had car park draws which mean her efforts can be considerably marked up. I don’t see a lot of pace competition from inside her this time from stall eight and reckon she will be ridden to bag a box seat. If that plays out she’s going to be really tough to pass and rates a very appealing 9/1 chance here.
1pt Emily Upjohn @7/1, 16:00 Meydan, Saturday
1pt win Stars On Earth @9/1, 16:00 Meydan, Saturday