A wonderful looking few days of racing this week as the Ebor festival comes to the Knavesmire. We kick-off the week with a cracking Group 1 feature in the Juddmonte International Stakes where seven top-class runners go to post.
It’s hard to imagine the likes of fully exposed Decorated Knight or My Dream Boat landing a blow in this contest, and they are priced as though they have little hope.
Shutter Speed represents the only filly in the field, and although she beat the outstanding thoroughbred of the season on her first start, Enable, she succumbed to a respectable looking fourth in the Prix De Diane in France. On that evidence, she would not appear to be up to the required level to take on these colts.
Cliffs Of Moher and Churchill command respect for Aidan O’Brien who remains on-course to record his best season in terms of Group 1 victories. Cliffs Of Moher finished 4.5l behind the winner in the Coral Eclipse having been badly hampered during the mid-point in the race, and of the two Coolmore entries, he would be the more attractive betting prospect.
Cliffs Of Moher was only just denied in the Epsom Derby, and has proven stamina as compared to his stablemate Churchill who has largely impressed over a mile, and is now taking on the extended trip for the first time. Churchill was shaping up to be the horse to follow this year, before a disappointing reversal of the form with Barney Roy in the St. James Palace Stakes burst his bubble.
Churchill is more than capable of bouncing back, but having been pulled out of the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood due to the ground, his preparation has been anything but ideal. There are now a few question marks over him, albeit Ryan Moore’s confidence remains high. In reality, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see either of the O’Brien horses improve to go close in this race and they are not discounted lightly.
By far and away the most solid looking option is the strong-travelling, and markedly improved, ULYSSES, who has been exceptional for Sir Michael Stoute this season in his four-year-old campaign.
I’m convinced his best performances could still be to come with him only starting to realise his potential this season. There is a maturity and willingness about his performances now which makes him look all the more attractive for a race of this type.
There is a strong possibility that this will be a tactical affair, with no proven pace-maker in the field. This shouldn’t particularly bother Ulysses given that he travels so comfortably, and he is typically the last horse off-the-bridle doing all his best work at the finish. But, more crucially, he can be dropped-in anywhere in the race, and off of any pace, which makes him a lot more solid from a punting perspective.
The rematch between the selection and Barney Roy is a mouth-watering one, and I am slightly surprised that Ulysses is a full point bigger, with the Eclipse winner now only giving away 7lbs to the Godolphin runner versus the 10lbs that he gave him at Sandown, with the ground also possibly going against the latter. That race was only six weeks ago, Barney Roy could have improved, and Ulysses has since run second to Enable in the King George giving her a full stone.
That form is extremely solid, with the likes of Royal Ascot winner’s Idaho and Highland Reel finishing behind him on soft ground. And that would have to be the main concern, whether the Ascot race will have taken its toll on him. The drop back to 1m 2f helps, and the ground should be absolutely fine so I think he and the champion jockey should be more than capable of overcoming those challenges.
Barney Roy is most likely to put up the biggest fight, and he is an exceptionally talented colt. However, he is not exactly going to get a pace-to-aim at which may be required to see him at his best, and with the potential for rain, it does not appear that he will get his optimal conditions.
Barney Roy’s class might shine through, then again he had his favoured conditions in the Eclipse where he couldn’t beat Ulysses and now he carries more weight.
We think Ulysses should thrive around the Knavesmire and are taking him to confirm his superiority over the three-year-olds.
1.5pts win Ulysses @7/2, 15:35 York, Wednesday (various bookmakers)