Paul Nicholls horses always come to the fore at this part of the season and I see no good reason not to be on VICENTE, who seeks to claim a historic treble of Scottish Grand National victories.
He comes in to this race 4lbs higher than his winning mark last year, but that is not a huge burden and he actually carries 3lbs less on his back compared to the 11st 10lbs he hauled around last year.
His forms looks patchy this season but that’s because he hasn’t had his ground, but he will get his conditions today and the fact he has had a quiet campaign could work in his favour over this sapping trip.
It would be some achievement for him, but he is a classy type and saves his best for this track. With connections also sounding confident it would be folly to ignore him given that it doesn’t look the hottest of renewals.
Nicholls other runner Silsol could stay on into a place if his jumping holds together, and I was really tempted to back Looking Well, who fell at the last when having the race at his mercy over 4m 1f at Musslbrough, and he looks unexposed at this trip.
But SIZING TENNESSEE could also be unexposed as this trip, and I really like the form of his third in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham where he finished behind Rathvinden (who I rate highly) and Ms. Parfois (who has since finished second in a Grade 1).
Apparently he lost a shoe as he came up the hill, and he was better than the bare result finishing 22 lengths behind on that ground – which would have been softer than ideal. Despite that, he was well clear of the rest.
He holds some of the best form in the race although a record of 1/11 over fences is not overly inspiring, but he is generally bang in there and this is only his second appearance over a marathon trip.
He pushed Yanworth to a neck second in a 2m 5f Grade 2 earlier in the year, before finishing third to another subsequent Cheltenham winner in Mister Whitaker as well.
Sizing Tennessee’s mark of 145 is perfect in the context of recent Scottish National types and he looked capable of a race of this nature when a staying on winner over 3m 1.5f at Cheltenham in December.
He also looked a serious threat to Black Corton over a three miles on good ground before falling at the last when other current market fancy Fagan looked well-beaten back in third.
Sizing Tennesses appears overpriced at 16/1 and he might just be more suited to a flatter-galloping track.
1pt each-way Vicente @10/1, 16:05 Ayr, Saturday (five places, 1/4 odds with Bet365)
0.75pts each-way Sizing Tennessee @16/1, 16:05 Ayr, Saturday (seven places, 1/5 odds with Coral)
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