Haydock hosts the Group One 32Red Sprint Cup on Saturday, and July Cup hero Limato bids to confirm his status as the best six-furlong sprinter in Europe.
The threat of heavy rain casts doubt over his participation and I do wonder whether his trainer, Henry Candy, is regretting withdrawing last year’s winner Twilight Son.
Unless the horse is injured it seems an odd decision – and it’s a great shame he won’t attempt to retain his title given every likely drop of rain would play to his strengths.
What’s left is Limato at a skinny 2/1 price – and if the ground does go on the soft side he could very well be withdrawn, with a Rule 4 deduction knocking 30% off the price of the rest of the field.
That makes an early bet treacherous, and, with this race coming so soon after his excellent second in the Nunthorpe, I am keen to take him on.
Quiet Reflection is the obvious place to start and her form at this level is very strong.
She was third in Limato’s July Cup and won the Group One Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot on her previous start as well as winning five of her six runs prior to that.
She’ll be bang in there and will appreciate the rain, so there might just be value in her 11/2 quote as an each-way bet.
However, the one I’m interested in is the horse that finished second to Quiet Reflection at Royal Ascot, KACHY, who has disappointed in two runs since.
Those two runs were over five furlongs though, so distance could be offered as an excuse as well as the quicker ground.
It was good-to-soft at Ascot and if you watch the race back it’s hard not to agree that Kachy probably would have won had he not wandered all the way across the track to find the rail, sacrificing easily more ground than the winning margin.
Take the form of that run in isolation and there doesn’t seem to be an awful lot between Kachy and Quiet Reflection, yet, eight times the price, the former can be backed at 40/1.
That alone is probably worth a small each-way poke with SkyBet, who offer five places and top price.
It’ll take a very good one to beat Limato, though.
0.5pt each-way Kachy @40/1, 16:30 Haydock, Saturday (SkyBet, 1,2,3,4,5, 1/4 odds)
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