0.5pt each-way Silver Line @28/1, 15:30 Newmarket, Saturday

This looks a highly-competitive renewal of the Middle Park Stakes, a six-furlong Group One for two-year-olds.

Blue Point trades favourite after an authoritative win in the Gimcrack at York, where he had today’s opponents Mubtasim and Mokarris behind.

Whilst Mubtasim bounced back to form next time out, I don’t see why either should improve past Blue Point given how easily he beat them.

Only one horse has beaten Blue Point so far, Mehmas, and he runs this time on 3lb better terms.

On that evidence you’d think the market has it all wrong, but this is later in the season and, on the Gimcrack form, it looks like Blue Point might have overtaken him.

Mehmas is a small horse and not expected to make a mark as a three-year-old so this is his swansong before his early retirement to stud.

He ran a few weekends ago in Ireland and ran well, but couldn’t handle Churchill and perhaps the extra furlong that race asked.

At 5/1 he’s a tempter, but I think Blue Point will beat him this time.

One that stands out at the prices is Ryan Moore’s mount Peace Envoy, who ran Lady Aurelia close in the Prix Morny at Deauville on his last start (watch below).

His stablemate Intelligence Cross is shorter in the betting but Moore has ignored his claims, which is a tip in itself.

O’Brien’s runners always merit respect in these Group Ones and Peace Envoy certainly fits the profile of an improver.

The Deauville form is very strong, however it may have been flattered by the winner stepping in a hole a furlong out and losing her stride – that’s the excuse put up by connections for her underwhelming win.

On his eight start this season, I’m not sure how much more improvement there is to come, so perhaps the 9/1 available is already too short.

The one that’s got me is Saeed bin Suroor’s SILVER LINE at a big looking 28/1.

Bin Suroor’s yard, like many in Newmarket this season, has been badly affected by a virus which ensured he’d been a rare visitor to the winner’s enclosure up until recently.

Now in flying form, his runners merit extra respect given their past exploits this season might have been suppressed.

Silver Line won his maiden at the first time of asking before running a strong third at Royal Ascot behind Prince Of Lir.

Next time out he finished just two lengths behind Mehmas at Newmarket’s July meeting – form which has been franked well since by the winner’s exploits – so, on just his fourth start, he has more right to improve than Mehmas, who is on his eighth, and might have flown totally under the radar for this.

That he’s pitched into Group One company rather than facing an easier assignment is eye-catching in itself, so at 28/1 he might be the each-way value.

0.5pt each-way Silver Line @28/1, 15:30 Newmarket, Saturday (Bet365)

Leave a comment

Send a Comment

Your email address will not be published.