The first horse in 37 years to win America’s triple crown, American Pharoah (10/11), is all the rage in both the media and betting for the $5m Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Except he was defeated last time out by Keen Ice – a horse he’d beaten in all three classics – who re-opposes today at 12/1. It’s hard to see too much wrong with their run at Saragota and, given this is the same 10f trip, their respective prices just don’t add up.
Europe’s only entry, Gleneagles for Aiden O’Brien, tries dirt and 10f for the first time and should give a better account of himself than when last seen chasing home Solow on ground slower than ideal at Ascot. He will have needed that run and the 16/1 available earlier in the week was full of value; now 9/1, that ship has sailed.
The value play is obvious: The improving Keen Ice has the perfect draw (2) and is surely overpriced with such a notable scalp in the form book.
1pt ew Keen Ice @12/1, Keeneland 21:35
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