1pt ew Tepin @11/1, Keeneland 19:30

The Breeders’ Cup Mile has shaped into an excellent betting heat. A strong European challenge headed by Andre Fabre’s in-form Esoterique look to have a stranglehold on the market, but the mare – according to her trainer – doesn’t get her ground today and is done no favours being drawn in stall nine. She’s also done most of her winning in a straight line and Keeneland’s turns might not see her at her best.

Dual Group One winner Make Believe heads the betting, also for Fabre, but has enjoyed good ground on both of his big wins and flopped badly on his sole attempt at this trip. He’s a front runner and has been drawn perfectly, so there’s plenty in his favour, but I’ve doubts over his stamina over this trip and on this ground.

Time Test has been undone by slow ground before, having finished behind Golden Horn and Arabian Queen at York over ten furlongs. This distance should be more suitable, though, and he’s not without a chance.

One I do like is the filly Impassable, who on soft ground beat Miss France to Group Two honours a month ago at Longchamp and showed a potent turn of foot to fly past her rivals in the final furlong. She shaped like the step up in trip will suit and, aged just three, comes in at the bottom of the weights for this. There’s nothing wrong with her draw (5) and at a general 7/1 looks a decent price – particularly if she can improve again. It might be wise to wait and see how Miss France gets on in the Filly and Mare Turf (18:10) before committing any money.

Last year’s winner Karakontie has frustrated us this season, having been tipped by this site twice and disappointed on both occasions. Despite the big price (14/1), I’m not tempted to go back for more as this is a different track and ground to Santa Anita so we can’t read too much into the form.

The American horses have been largely dismissed by the market but Tepin thrashed a couple of albeit-average Aiden O’Brien raiders in Grade 1 company over course and distance last month, despite being drawn in the car park. Perhaps aided by the hype around the European raiders, she’s a big price at 11/1 and I’m not sure what more she could have done to advertise her claims. She handles the slower ground and is certain to break better than her transatlantic colleagues so has a massive chance.

1pt ew Tepin @11/1, Keeneland 19:30 (StanJames)

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