It’s not uncommon for the Cheltenham Festival’s Ryanair Chase and Queen Mother Champion Chase to attract a similar book of entries – there’s a five-furlong difference in distance and trainers like to keep their options open.
Gary Moore’s AR MAD is entered in both and can be backed at odds of 25/1 for either; both scream value.
Ar Mad enjoyed a promising novice chasing season last year, winning a Grade 1 at Sandown in stunning style before injury robbed him of a go at Willie Mullins’s winning machine Douvan in the Arkle at Cheltenham – Douvan won that race easily and has bolted up in every start since.
With Sprinter Sacre now retired, Douvan is a long odds-on favourite for the Champion Chase – which is not only pushing all the other prices out but it’s potentially scaring off last year’s second, Un De Sceaux, who could contest the longer Ryanair Chase.
Un De Sceaux is probably not good enough for the former, and it seems unlikely his connections would run him against Douvan anyway, given trainer Willie Mullins’s habit of splitting his aces.
So if the betting markets are to be believed, Ar Mad looks set to face at least one of them at the Festival.
Fascinatingly, this coming Saturday at Ascot Ar Mad and Un De Sceaux are due to meet over two miles in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase, which obviously flies in the face of the suggestion they’ll both be upped in trip for the Festival.
I really fancy Ar Mad for that race, and it’s hard to see his price for the Champion Chase not taking a slashing should he win it.
However, unless he were to burn Un De Sceaux for speed and win with plenty in hand, it’s his Ryanair quote I’ll be keeping an eye on should Ar Mad prevail, given he’d have solid claims for favouritism if that scenario occurred.
The two have met before already this season, when Un De Sceaux won a thrilling duel with Sire De Grugy to win the Grade 1 Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown.
Making his long-awaited reappearance from injury, Ar Mad was the eye-catcher as for much of the race he showed all his old zest from the front before a bad jumping error cost him all chance.
He ended up staying on really well for fourth, prompting talk from connections about a tilt at the three-mile King George at Kempton on Boxing Day, so there’s definitely a feeling in the camp he can stay longer trips and you suspect the Clarence House is going to be the acid test regarding his March target.
He looks high class and, in my opinion, the propensity for a blunder looks way over compensated for in his 25/1 quotes for both the Ryanair and Champion Chase – he’s exactly the front-running type to cause an upset at the Festival.
Sadly I think we’d be playing for place money if we tried to take on Douvan, so the fancy Champion Chase quote is less appealing.
Looking at who he might face in the Ryanair, obviously Un De Sceaux is favourite and we think he’s beatable, whilst last year’s second Valseur Lido is out for the season and second favourite is Cue Card, who would be dropping in trip and I highly doubt has the pace to win the race at his age.
Most of the market is made up of stayers and I’d fancy Ar Mad’s fast running style to cause them all problems, much like Uxizandre did in the race two years ago when even the mighty Don Cossack was forced into errors.
Let’s take some of that 25/1 for the Ryanair, on the nose, and hope he gives Un De Sceaux a beating on Saturday – but not so emphatically that connections start dreaming of beating Douvan…
…yet there is, of course, a scenario where Ar Mad hammers Un De Sceaux this weekend and his Champion Chase price crashes in to something like 7/1 – or if something were to happen to Douvan in the coming weeks the market would turn itself inside out.
Should the former happen, Gary Moore and Ar Mad’s connections would have to think long and hard about a shot at the Champion Chase and I want to be on-side if this happens.
Paddy Power offer 12/1 non-runner-no-bet for Ar Mad to take the Champion Chase, and there’s little arguing with that – if he is proven not good enough this weekend our stake will be returned safe and sound.
Cheltenham Festival 2017 ante-post bets:
1pt win Ar Mad @12/1 non-runner-no-bet, Champion Chase, March 15th (Paddy Power)
1pt win Ar Mad @25/1, Ryanair Chase, March 16th (various)
0.5pt each-way Sceau Royal @33/1, Champion Hurdle, March 14th (advised 12th Jan)