Frozen ground has claimed Ascot’s big jumps meeting today, denying us a chance to see Ar Mad and Un De Sceaux lock horns and shed some light on their respective Cheltenham targets.
Haydock, however, has the green light and a solid card featuring several graded races.
In the 13:30 novices’ chase, Paul Nicholls hopes his Politologue can confirm the form of two recent facile wins at Ascot and here at Haydock and progress into stable-star status.
There’s nothing wrong with his jumping and another bold show looks likely, but I wasn’t blown away by his performance at Ascot and he has to concede weight to five opponents, each with their own claims.
The one I fancy is the outsider MAXIMISER, who has been advised here before when a faller at Newbury last season.
He was going well that day and it wasn’t a bad mistake that cost him, so it’s anyone’s guess if he’d have won and he looks worth another look.
He’s been reverted to hurdles since with a photo-finish defeat in a Listed race in France at the back-end of last season as well as a disappointing reappearance back at Newbury in November when pulled up behind the classy Unowhatimeanharry.
Judging by the races he’s contested, he likes flat tracks and has won emphatically at Haydock before, while he split Silsol and Seeyouatmidnight in a novice chase at Carlisle last campaign – form that’s working out well.
Silsol has beaten subsequent Hennessy and Welsh National winner Native River over hurdles this season, while Seeyouatmidnight has won a fair few graded races and was very impressive in beating Bristol De Mai at Carlisle before getting stuck in the mud in the Betfair Chase.
It’s a solid form line and, with just two career starts over fences so far, there’s a feeling Maximiser’s stop-start career is yet to peak so, receiving a useful 7lbs from the favourite at a track that’ll suit him, I think he’s worth chancing at a big price of 16/1.
1pt win Maximiser @16/1, 13:30 Haydock, Saturday
Later on the card in the 14:05 novices’ hurdle, MOHAAYED looks the bet for the Skeltons at 8/1 as he’s weighted to reverse Kempton form with Elgin, who meets on 3lb worse terms.
Only 1¾ split them last time and, given that was Mohaayed’s first run over hurdles since switching from the flat, improvement feels more assured than optimistic.
“He ran really well on his debut. He’d shown us a lot at home and had jumped really nicely. He outran himself on his first start and we just need to see him back that run up now. It’s a deep race but he’s a quality animal,” Skelton said regarding his chances.
Like Kempton, Haydock is a flat track and that should probably suit him, though the ground is something of an unknown and must be the main negative.
The favourite is Harry Fry’s Neon Wolf, a long odds-on winner last time in his first run over obstacles, but he’s a very short price again at 6/4 and I’d argue he doesn’t deserve the compliment – not yet anyway.
This is a step up in grade and with horses available at nicer prices that are more proven at this level, he’s easy to pass on value grounds.
1pt win Mohaayed @8/1, 14:05 Haydock, Saturday
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