Tuesday’s Glorious Goodwood card hosts the seven-furlong Lennox Stakes and firm, fast summer ground looks likely.
Hugo Palmer’s Home Of The Brave, unbeaten in two starts this season, looks likely to go off favourite at around 2/1 with the ground in his favour.
He’s a good horse but looks fully exposed now and has generally come up short at this level in the past, so it’d be no shock to see him beaten.
His Godolphin teammate Dutch Connection is another who has come up short enough times when stepped up in grade to look vulnerable to an improver, so I’m looking to back one of the three-year-olds.
The Godolphin number one royal blue cap goes to Richard Fahey’s Birchwood, who recently won at Chester and is unbeaten when there’s been some ‘firm’ in the going description.
He also has the valuable talents of Ryan Moore on board and, with his trainer sounding confident, looks good value at 7/1.
Rather than go each-way, I’m taking two from the field and siding with Hugo Palmer’s three-year-old GIFTED MASTER, who looked appropriately named when running away with last season’s Tattersalls Millions 2YO Trophy at Newmarket over this seven-furlong trip and on similar good-to-firm ground.
It’s difficult to argue he hasn’t trained on either as he won his first two starts of 2016 in good style – though he does have to bounce back from a disappointing couple of runs behind subsequent Commonwealth Cup winner Quiet Reflection and then Guineas third Ribchester in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Palmer believes seven furlongs is his best trip and he wants quick ground, so both those defeats come with valid excuses and he’s got to have a big chance at Goodwood.
At 8/1 he has similar claims and looks well worth a bet with his expected front-running tactics so often successful at Goodwood.
1pt win Birchwood @7/1, 15:10 Goodwood, Tuesday
1pt win Gifted Master @8/1, 15:10 Goodwood, Tuesday