2m (1m7f199y) (Old) My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)
I think people are getting quite carried away with Majborough, who’s no doubt the right favourite, but his price doesn’t reflect his true chance. The main issue I have is he’s a three-mile chaser on looks and reputation. He won his Triumph Hurdle attempting to make the running but not having the pace to do so, and it was pure staying power and good jumping that got him past Kargese up the hill. There’s nothing wrong with his jumping as a two-mile chasing prospect as he is aggressive and quick over a fence – but then again he hasn’t clouted one yet to put some manners on him, and I suspect that’s only a matter of time given he’s been scrappy. The big question is whether he’ll be able to run and jump fast enough to make the running in a good ground Arkle against to excellent jumpers who love good ground. There are no rooms for any significant errors in a race like this, and he looks the most likely to make one out of the market principles. My preference is for JANGO BAIE as a bet as he ticks all the boxes I want in an Arkle winner and, when push comes to shove, I think will have more class than L’Eau Du Sud. He’s a Grade 1 winner as a novice hurdler, a complete natural over a fence, stays two miles and beyond strongly, and is trained by the king of this division – oh and he hacked up at his only run at Cheltenham so the course is no concern. Connections are insistent he’ll improve for better ground and they’ve already stated their intent to make the running, so if he can put some pressure on Majborough’s jumping from the front, he’ll be very difficult to pass. Am I expecting him to win against such a warm favourite? Not really, but would a horse of his profile win more than 11% of renewals? I think so.
1pt win Jango Baie @15/2, 14:00 Cheltenham Festival, Tuesday
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