Britain’s flat season has come to a close but, over in Los Angeles, Santa Anita is hosting the Breeders’ Cup, America’s biggest race meet.
The weekend hosts a whopping 13 Grade 1 races and often attracts some Europe’s finest equine talent – particularly those horses who love summer ground.
Santa Anita is a tight, turning track where the local runners go hell for leather from the stalls meaning there’s huge importance on track position.
Low draws are massive pluses, and I’ve seen plenty of European superstars flop at the venue.
Friday hosts four Grade 1 races and the Juvenile Fillies Turf looks a nice betting heat with the favourite, Spain Burg, easy to take on at 4/1.
A cosy winner of the Rockfell Stakes at Newmarket in September, she has been switched from stables in France to be trained in America by Katherine Ritvo and has it all to prove this side of the Atlantic.
Though she seemed to have plenty in hand, the Rockfell Stakes form isn’t the strongest in this field and, of the European raiders, I’d be much more wary of the Aidan O’Brien-trained Hydrangea in stall one.
Beaten by the Joseph O’Brien-trained Intricately in the Group One Moyglare Stud Stakes at Curragh before hammering all bar her stablemate Rhododendron in the Group One Fillies Mile at Newmarket, she arguably has the best form in the race given Intricately won her race on yielding ground and has to answer an altogether-different question around Santa Anita.
With no Rhododendron in the way, stablemate Roly Poly might be the biggest threat after she was so narrowly denied Group One honours by yet another O’Brien inmate, the absent Brave Anna, in the Cheveley Park Stakes.
She still beat the hugely-talented Lady Aurelia in that heat, but it was over six furlongs and that foe didn’t stay, whilst this American assignment is a full two furlongs longer at one mile.
Being by War Front there has to be question marks over Roly Poly’s ability to stay the trip, and she’s been drawn in the car park in stall 13.
Though Ryan Moore opted for her above the other Aiden O’Brien-trained runners, I think she’s really up against it and no value at 6/1.
European bookies make the four named raiders the first four in the betting, and I suspect the home team’s chance – not for the first time – has been grossly underestimated.
Of the home team, I’m keen on the two Mark Casse-trained runners LA CORONEL and VICTORY TO VICTORY.
Stable jockey Florent Geroux has opted for the former, but comments by Casse suggest that was as good as a coin flip after the jockey had told the owner they’d win this race back when she broke her maiden.
She’s got an awful draw in 14 and, perhaps solely because Geroux has sided with her, is significantly shorter in the betting at 9/1 best price than the 14/1 Victory To Victory.
Victory To Victory is parked cosily in stall five and arrives a Grade 1 winner after a blazing win at Woodbine (watch below) – and, visually, was just as impressive as La Coronel’s recent win at Keeneland.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2wXTCoHjcA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLm3lXEIa3E
I’m having a hard time splitting them given the trainer’s clear enthusiasm about La Coronel, so both at decent prices I’m backing both to upset the European raiding party.
1pt win La Coronel @9/1, 22:50 Santa Anita, Friday
1pt win Victory To Victory @14/1, 22:50 Santa Anita, Friday