Day two of the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita, Los Angeles, and Aidan O’Brien has sent his Washington DC on a raid to collect the spoils in the Turf Sprint.
A rare winner, Washington DC has run with huge credit in sprints from five to six furlongs this season and has even proven his stamina for seven with a win at Dundalk.
He’s a good horse with a good chance but I can’t believe he’s favourite with European bookies at 6/1, particularly as his best run was over just shy of five furlongs in the Abbaye at Chantilly on Arc day.
This is a longer trip and, though he stays, it’s asking an awful lot.
On ratings he is a few pounds lower than another raider, Hugo Palmer’s Home Of The Brave, who is a 16/1 shot and best known as a seven-furlong horse.
He’ll get his ideal fast ground and will stay every inch of the trip – this race has been a graveyard for horses not proven over further – so has a good chance.
If it were a domestic Group One I’d laugh at his chances given the strength of the sprinting division in Britain, but this is a race rarely targeted by raiders yet long seen as an opportune one.
The Europeans haven’t done well historically, though there have only been a few runners, and I’m again looking to the home team for the value.
If we want a horse that stays well then CELESTINE might be the answer at 10/1.
A middle draw is favourable in this unique race, as the field have to turn right before swinging left round the home turn.
Drawn 14, Celestine doesn’t have an ideal starting berth, but she thoroughly stays a mile, as evidenced by her near-record-breaking Grade 1 win at Belmont earlier in the season, and that should ensure she’s involved in the closing stages here – she’s also the highest rated horse in the race.
She was, however, beaten on her last start by Photo Call in a tactical race where the leader was allowed way too much slack and got away.
Superstar mare TEPIN also ran in the race and went off long odds-on, passing Celestine on the home turn to take second by a few lengths and closing Photo Call right to the line.
Tepin races later in the Turf Mile against the Europeans Limato and Alice Springs – and should Celestine win the Turf Sprint, it’d pay a handsome compliment to her chances.
We can back Celestine and Tepin in an each-way double that pays 55/1, and that looks a smart play to me as I think Tepin is overpriced at 9/2 and has a massive, massive chance in the Mile.
Readers of this page will have won the race last year with Tepin at 11/1, and she again delivered us the points at Royal Ascot when skipping through the mud to beat many of Europe’s best milers to Queen Anne Stakes glory.
She’s a hugely talented, superstar of a horse and the likeable Limato will have to be extremely good to beat her.
Limato won the July Cup over six furlongs this season, placed second over five in the Nunthorpe behind Mecca’s Angel, and won a soft renewal of the Foret at Chantilly over seven.
He’s very versatile and trainer Henry Candy has always wanted to race him over a mile, but there is a nagging doubt that this will be his optimum trip and in a field this deep he’ll need to be at his best.
He’s all about speed, and stamina is a question mark not entirely factored into his price, so I’m seeing the brilliant Alice Springs as the main threat.
This filly has an amazing turn of foot and showed that when winning the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown.
This is a far tougher race, but she absolutely bolted up and seems to be at her best when given a target to run at.
Ryan Moore takes the ride and you can bet he’ll time his run perfectly, but I reckon home advantage can be crucial here as I’m struggling to see this going to a hold-up horse given the likely blistering, and thoroughly non-European, pace.
Usually that would set things up for a hold-up horse, but I think with Tepin likely to race prominently you’d be asking an awful lot to expect to pass the brilliant mare when she’s driven out.
And then there’s the curve ball, PHOTO CALL, who obviously beat Tepin last time out and has been quoted a massive 25/1 by European bookies.
Tepin’s trainer Mark Casse has repeatedly said that it was more than just a tactical mishap that handed Photo Call that recent race, and in doing so ending Tepin’s long unbeaten sequence.
Watch is back and it really was a brilliant, high-class front running performance from the winner and there’s every reason to expect similar tactics here.
Can Limato stay the mile at that pace?
That’s a big ask and I have major doubts – though Alice Springs is a Galileo and will probably see it out just fine so it shouldn’t be seen as a negative to her chances.
Celestine winning the Turf Sprint would of course also compliment Photo Call’s chances in the Turf Mile, so they each-way double is also worth a pop with those two at a massive price.
At 9/2 it’d be criminal not to back Tepin in the single as well.
0.5pt win Celestine @10/1, 21:05 Santa Anita, Saturday (Bet365)
1pt win Tepin @9/2, 23:40 Santa Anita, Saturday (Betfred)
0.5pt each-way double Celestine and Tepin @54/1 (Totesport)
0.25pt each-way double Celestine and Photo Call @259/1 (Ladbrokes)
(Total stake 3pts)
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