At 3/1 I fancy LADY ELI to land the Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf after proving her effectiveness at the Santa Anita track when winning the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf two seasons ago.
Injury interrupted her three-year-old career but she got back to winning ways last time out at Belmont Park, beating the re-opposing Sea Calisi and Sentiero Italia.
If she can continue to progress back to her best then she’s a very worthy favourite in the face of a European challenge that I reckon falls short of top class.
Seventh Heaven was a disappointment at Ascot’s Champions Day, but was very impressive when landing the Yorkshire Oaks in August over a trip two furlongs further than the ten she’ll face today.
That’s got to be a negative as this tight track could catch her out, and there’s the concern she can take a while to get going in her races, which could leave her flat footed.
Queen’s Trust also travels over but didn’t run great in the same Champions Day race and has a hard time winning, so, whilst a career best is possible, it doesn’t look likely she’ll be good enough.
It’s fairly slim pickings from the remainder but Japanese raider Nuovo Record could be the value at double-digit odds.
An excellent second in Group One company in Hong Kong last December and also a Classic winner in Japan, she has plenty of class and can go well.
Recent runs have been underwhelming, though, and the draw has not been kind with her parked widest of all in 13.
Lady Eli in contrast is in the middle in stall eight and shouldn’t be hindered by that, so has every chance of stamping her class on the race.
I’m also struggling to get away from the claims of CATCH A GLIMPSE for Mark Casse at a big price of 20/1.
She won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Keeneland last season and trained on to win the Belmont Oaks Invitation Stakes this summer – both Grade 1s – so has proven stamina and class.
The catch is she has put in two poor performances the last twice and her usual jockey has jumped off to ride Sea Calisi.
Casse doesn’t seem to be too concerned and she looks overpriced considering her likely front-running tactics and draw in stall one will allow her to dictate the pace of things.
With four places offered each-way with SkyBet she looks a decent bet too.
1pt win Lady Eli @3/1, 19:43 Santa Anita, Saturday
0.5pt each-way Catch A Glimpse @20/1, 19:43 Santa Anita, Saturday (SkyBet)