1pt win Limato @12/1, 14:15 Newmarket, Saturday

Reigning champion Harry Angel misses the July Cup after failing to recover from an injury sustained in the starting stalls at Royal Ascot, leaving his Godolphin teammate Blue Point, the King’s Stand winner, top of the market at a general 3/1.

Blue Point was a good two-year-old and high class at three, despite finding Group One success hard to come by in what looks a very talented generation of British sprinters.

His best form is at Ascot – he holds the track record for six furlongs – and form figures of 0/2 at Newmarket are a little concerning for his July Cup chances despite almost everything else pointing towards him being the winner.

I think he and second-favourite US Navy Flag are too short to be of punting interest, with the latter so far living up to the cliché of War Front-sired colts not progressing as three-year-olds – I fully subscribe to that idea and very rarely back War Front’s sons and daughters.

Profitable horse race betting generally involves backing overpriced horses rather than the most likely winner, and that is particularly true on the flat over sprinting trips where winners change hands often at the top of the table.

That said, four of the past five renewals of the July Cup have gone to the favourites, with Lethal Force, the second favourite and then Diamond Jubilee Stakes winner, breaking the trend in 2013.

Newmarket is quite a particular challenge for sprinters as it generally doesn’t favour those ridden for a turn of foot from off the pace, unlike, for example, Ascot which is a stiff six furlongs that rarely favours front runners.

Course form is a huge plus at Newmarket and few can beat the claims of 2016 winner LIMATO in that department, as he was also second in the race last year and has never finished outside the first two in three starts at the track, winning twice, nor has he ever finished outside the first three over this six furlong trip.

Fast ground is also very much in his favour meaning he’s short on excuses, particularly as a 12/1 poke, and I think he’s a bit overpriced.

I’m not keen on the Commonwealth Cup form from Royal Ascot as there was a surprise winner in Eqtidaar, and big disappointments from Sioux Nation and Invincible Army.

Sands Of Mali came out of the race with great credit and looks a proper Group One horse, but finished last in his one visit to Newmarket while Sioux Nation’s sire Scat Daddy’s progeny have consistently disappointed at the track.

Invincible Army is the biggest price of the four but is the only one with winning form at the track; if there is a bet from the three-year-olds, at 25/1, I think it’s him.

Aussie raider Redkirk Warrior ran very poorly at Royal Ascot and it’d take a real leap of faith to back him despite his domestic form suggesting he’s top class – I’d want a flat track and a double-digit price for starters.

Of the rest, Brando has a shout as he placed in this last year before winning his Group One in France, but he has something to find with the selection.

1pt win Limato @12/1, 14:15 Newmarket, Saturday

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