The Group One Vincent O’Brien National Stakes has been won by some exceptional colts in the past, and the winner here could be a serious contender for the Classics next season.
It’s difficult to look beyond the first two in the betting, with Aiden O’Brien’s Churchill (three from four), and Richard Hannon’s MEHMAS (four from six).
The former has looked nothing more than work-man-like in his races which includes a victory in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot.
That form has not worked out particularly well, and he was kept up to his task for a couple of lengths victory on his latest start in a Group Two. The second in that race has since finished dead last, and its hard to be overly excited about the form on offer from the other horses he has beaten.
His trainer is no mug when it comes to winning this race, and Churchill has to be feared with entries for the Guineas and the Derby next year.
But he makes little appeal at a best-priced 8/11, and we have no desire to get stuck in when the best form on offer is from the UK raider.
Mehmas was a two length second to Caravaggio – with Psychedelic Funk a further 2.5l held in third – in the Coventry Stakes, which is huge form, and he is arguably the second best two-year-old colt in training off the back of two recent Group Two victories.
He won the July Stakes at Newmarket beating Intelligence Cross, and bettered that when giving 3lbs to Blue Point to win with a staying-on performance in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. That form has worked out extremely well with Blue Point bolting up next time out.
Mehmas is tackling 7f for the first time, but he has a very relaxed way of travelling in to his races and has been finishing them off strongly, so it looks like he should enjoy the trip and is definitely the value bet at 11/4 to claim his first Group One.
1pt win Mehmas @11/4, 16:15 Curragh, Sunday (888sport)