1m4f (1m4f6y) Betfred Derby (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (No Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo)
Not a vintage year – if the trials are anything to go by – but a good betting market as Auguste Rodin and Arrest are easy to take on. Soft ground can’t have been the issue for the former in the Guineas as he’s gone through mud before, and I thought he looked a bit small compared to the opposition at Newmarket. It’s worth noting he is not a guaranteed stayer at 12f either, for all connections think he is – they thought the same about Saxon Warrior and he didn’t get home at Epsom. Obviously he was high class as a 2yo but it’s a real leap of faith to back him at his current odds. Arrest is far too short in the betting, which is nearly all down to John Gosden and Frankie winning both Group Ones on Friday. The horse has a lot to prove on fast ground and vibes from connections have been lukewarm at best. The bet here is blindingly obvious and I’m all over Godolphin’s MILITARY ORDER, a full brother to 2021 winner Adayar and one of two sons of the all-conquering Frankel in the field. He’s very unexposed and has racked up a winning sequence of three, showcasing staying power and battling qualities that go a long way in a Derby. He strides like 12f will suit and I don’t see his relative lack of Group-level form as a particular negative given his pedigree and improving profile – he’s achieved more than Adayar had at the same stage. I’d have him clear favourite and he isn’t, so he’s worthy of a good bet.
2pts win Military Order @5/1, 13:30 Epsom, Saturday
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