7f Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Group 1) (2yo No Geldings) (New Course) (Turf) (2yo)
There’s a very solid look to the Irish form here and despite toying with taking on HENRI MATISSE, his trainer had four winners on the card yesterday and he’s clearly the most talented horse in this race. He’s got blinkers on for the first time as he wandered around under pressure in the National Stakes to finish second. He’s shown speed, which is needed for a Lagardere over just shy of 7f, and I suspect Ryan Moore will get the job done. I will play two in the race though as I can’t shake the claims of HOUQUETOT who is by the same sire, Wootton Bassett, and arrives with the same form figures of three wins and a second. He was beaten by an Irish raider who was comfortably dismissed by Henri Matisse but my strong suspicion is the selection will take a significant step forward. He’s proven with cut in the ground, has won over the Lagardere course and distance, his trainer loves him and I think 20/1 is way too big. Field Of Gold is next on the list.
1.5pts win Henri Matisse 9/4, 13:30 Longchamp, Sunday
0.5pts win Houquetot 20/1, 13:30 Longchamp, Sunday
1m4f Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) (3yo+ No Geldings) (Grande Course) (Turf) (3yo+)
SOSIE ticks all the boxes. He’s 3/3 at the course, 2/2 at the trip – including at Group One level – he’s trained by the Arc’s winning most trainer, sired by an Arc winner and proven on softer ground. Whist Look De Vega beat him in the 10f Jockey Club, he didn’t get as smooth a trip from a low draw and comfortably reversed places in the Prix Niel over 2f further despite a pedestrian galop which should have favoured speed over stamina. For my money, Sosie will always beat Look De Vega over 12f and there’s no way match fitness can be used as an excuse as Sosie’s trainer Andre Fabre will have trained his horse to peak this weekend as well. Like most of Sea The Stars’ progeny he’s getting better with age and I think he has an outstanding chance of winning the Arc. My second selection is AL RIFFA who I backed antepost for last year’s renewal before he got a setback. The fact of the matter is he has two outstanding pieces of form behind last year’s winner Ace Impact and the world’s best turf horse City Of Troy, who he gave 10lb when losing a length to at Sandown. That was a mighty run and he’s since shown he can stay 12f, albeit against lesser known horses in Germany – in a race that has been a stepping stone to several recent Arc winners. The deciding factor for me is the continued narrative from trainer Joseph O’Brien that they’ve been working back from the Arc all season, which is so important to beating the French in their own yard. Al Riffa thrives for soft ground and he remains unexposed at this trip.
2pts win Sosie 9/2, 15:20 Longchamp, Sunday
1pt win Al Riffa 9/1, 15:20 Longchamp, Sunday
1m2f Prix de l’Opera Longines (Group 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Grande Course) (Turf) (3yo+)
I can’t believe Ylang Ylang is disputing favouritism here as she’s a busted flush, and siding with Fallen Angel feels muggy given she has to prove she stays and this could be the worst ground she’s ever encountered. The one I like is an outsider, START OF DAY, who has progressed well and is well worth a crack at this level. She comfortably beat horses that had run well in the French Classics last time out, when beaten by an unbeaten colt who could be anything. She has a turn of foot and strong finishing kick which can be used to good effect if she can grab a good position from her low draw in stall one.
0.5pts win Start Of Day 16/1, 16:05 Longchamp, Sunday
Leave a comment