Friday looks a tough betting day with not a lot of obvious value about, mainly as the two feature Group Ones are dominated in the betting by two of Aidan O’Brien’s best three-year-olds.
There seems little point taking on Winter in the Coronation Stakes after her brace of 1000 Guineas wins, but the six-furlong Commonwealth Cup is no walk in the park for the unbeaten Caravaggio.
He looks exceptional and any doubts he had trained on from that brilliant two-year-old campaign, where he won the Coventry Stakes at this meeting last year as well as the Group One Phoenix Stakes, were put aside when he romped home on his seasonal reappearance.
O’Brien hails him the fastest horse he’s ever trained – and he’s trained over 300 Group One winners!
However, he’s up against what looks a rock-solid home team, with Godolphin’s Harry Angel and Blue Point arriving after each respectively breaking the track records at Haydock and here at Ascot.
That’s some feat considering both tracks host Group One sprints; no horse has ever run the Commonwealth Cup distance faster than Blue Point, and he was receiving weight from Harry Angel back in second that day, so you have to mark his effort up too.
However, the words of ex-champion jockey Richard Hughes keep coming back to me after he stated a few years back that you should always be wary of horses next time out after breaking track records, as it really takes a huge amount out of them.
Blue Point, like a few of his sire’s progeny, is a bit hit and miss so is easiest to pass as I fear the bounce factor, while I just don’t see any value in Harry Angel’s 7/2 best price.
And then there’s the American challenger BOUND FOR NOWHERE, who has been working very well with Tuesday’s King’s Stand Stakes winner Lady Aurelia, arguably the best sprinter in the world right now.
He is very hard to gauge at 10/1 with no form ties with the Europeans – and he’ll have to be exceptional to beat the top three in the market – but they’re all their to be shot at and, track records aside, none of them have contested a Group One sprint out of juvenile company, so they all have something to prove.
The draw has been kind as he’s right by Caravaggio on the far side, and not too far from Yalta, who might take them along.
Track and trip should be fine so there aren’t many negatives, and he’s worth siding with at that price.
1pt win Bound For Nowhere @10/1, 15:40 Ascot, Friday
Elsewhere on the card there might be some value about in the opener, where jockey bookings might be revealing for the Coolmore-connected team, which includes two more of Wesley Ward’s.
Ward clearly rates Fairyland above his other runner Princess Peggy, but as she’s owned by Coolmore I’d expect Ryan Moore to take the ride if they really fancied her.
Both fillies are by our favourite sire Scatt Daddy, and it’s Fairlyland that merits most attention from the pair at 8/1, but Ryan Moore decision to pass her to ride CLEMMIE looks to be a huge tip in itself.
By Galileo and a full sister to dual-Guineas winner Churchill, who was champion two-year-old last year, she’s obviously bred for success – while there wasn’t a lot wrong with her sole appearance on the racecourse to date, where, like Churchill, she came third on debut.
She’s drawn next to the favourite, Alpha Centauri, and Princess Peggy, who is likely to lead a group down the far-side rail where a lot of winners came from yesterday.
It’s likely the field will split in two as Fairyland is drawn way over the other side of the track, and that could be crucial in deciding the race.
Luck will be a factor and 6/1 quotes for Clemmie are hardly full of value, but there have been enough clues about to convince me the ‘lads’ at Ballydoyle are expecting a huge run.
1pt win Clemmie @7/1, 14:30 Ascot, Friday (188Bet)
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