I won’t waste time telling you how worthy a favourite Enable is for this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, as she has the best form in the race and fits the perfect profile for a potential Arc winner.
She isn’t the only three-year-old filly to have easily beaten her elders in Ascot’s King George before trying to win the Arc, as her trainer also gave Tagrhrooda that task a few years back and she came up short in Paris.
I’m not mad about this year’s King George form and I’m not convinced second-favourite Ulysses is quite as good as some think he is – particularly over this mile-and-a-half trip.
Highland Reel put him in his place at Royal Ascot and I actually think Decorated Knight, who was also involved in that finish, did more damage to the form when he subsequently won the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown, brushing aside Churchill, the dual-Guineas winner who came second to Ulysses in his finest hour in the Juddmonte International.
Basically I think the middle-distance colts from Britain and Ireland are pretty average this year, particularly over a mile-and-a-half, and I think both Ulysses and Enable are beatable.
Enable and Ulysses have been given, in my opinion, bad draws in stalls one and two, as they’ll need to break fast and grab a prominent spot on the inside rail before those in the middle do, otherwise she’s going to need some luck to win boxed in from the middle of the pack.
I’m sure this is a fact not missed by the four-strong Coolmore team and, frankly, I can’t see anything other than a mad rush for position before the long, looping right-handed turn around Chantilly.
Coolmore’s Winter (the choice of Ryan Moore in stall eight), Idaho (stall seven) and Order Of St George (stall nine) look the most likely to attempt that, and that could be crucial in the outcome of the race.
I’m tempted to say Order Of St George would be my pick from that trio, but I do doubt he’s got the speed to win an Arc, which dual-Guineas Winter certainly possesses.
She is also a three-year-old filly and her season has been arguably just as impressive as the favourite’s, but this is a step up in trip into the unknown and I’m not sure that’s fully factored into her 10/1 price in such a deep race.
At twice the price (20/1) I’d rather, from a betting perspective, side with the St Leger and Irish Derby winner Capri – though he’s turned out a few weeks after impressively landing that Doncaster Classic and winners of that race have a dreadful record in the Arc.
As such, I’m backing none of the O’Brien horses this year despite his 1-2-3 in a sub-standard renewal last season.
I remain a massive BRAMETOT fan after tipping him ante-post for this race, so nothing has changed regarding this dual-Classic winner’s chances and I would see his drift to 22/1 in places as a positive.
He is no 22/1 shot – no way.
He goes on the ground and will have been trained specifically for this, while he looks to want this trip and has an excellent turn of foot, so I fully expect him to run a massive race and pass horses from the back in the final furlongs.
The biggest issue is Chantilly’s short straight won’t give him much time to do that and if a horse like Enable, who stays so well, kicks for home before him then they’ll be extremely hard to catch – particularly if his slow-starting habits give her a head start.
Zarak is another who has a good turn of foot and will have been laid out for this race, so I can see him running a similar race at a big price and wouldn’t want to put you off backing him at each-way prices.
I expect Enable to win but she’s way too short to be of betting interest, so Brametot remains my main bet in the race.
Prediction:
1st: Enable
2nd: Brametot
3rd: Zarak
Recommended bet: 1pt each-way Brametot @22/1, 15:05 Chantilly, Sunday (1,2,3,4, 1/5 odds) (already advised ante-post @16/1, 1,2,3, 1/4 odds,)
Note: we do not recommend backing him twice!
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