We preview Saturday’s Group-One Champion Stakes at Ascot, with a horse-by-horse analysis of the market principles.
Jack Hobbs (5/4)
A strong second to Golden Horn in the English Derby, John Gosden’s three-year-old enjoyed his day in the sun when running out an impressive winner in the Irish equivalent. He warmed up for this with an easy win on Kempton’s all weather and won’t have any concerns over the forecast good to soft ground. A worthy favourite, though he’s no banker against plenty of classy opposition and his wide draw (12) has hurt his chances.
Form: 8/10
Value: 6/10
Chance: 9/10
Found (5/1)
A tough draw and lack of a clear run denied her chance in the Arc but, having not come off the bridle, the quick turnaround is of little concern and conditions will suit. Ryan Moore is on board and, despite a couple of near misses as a three-year-old, she is a proven Group-One performer whose claims are right up there with the favourite’s. The fillies’ weight allowance will help and she has a big chance drawn in stall eight.
Form: 7/10
Value: 8/10
Chance: 8/10
Vadamos (6/1)
Something of an unknown quantity on these shores, Andre Fabre’s four-year-old demands the respect he’s been given by bookmakers after he described his colt as “top class”. An easy winner of a German Group Two in September, the form-lines don’t cross so his trainer’s word and the video below is all we have. Despite the classy line-up, there are no obvious superstars to fear and he could prove good value for his 6/1 price. It’s hardly tantalising, but his good draw (5) has seen it backed.
Form: no idea
Value: 7/10
Chance: 7/10
The Corsican (12/1)
Back to winning ways at Newbury last month when taking the scalp of King George second Eagle Top, he was denied a clear run in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Ascot and should have gone closer. That’s solid course form, but whether he’s good enough for this is doubtful and, aged four, I don’t expect to see much improvement on Saturday. A good draw certainly helps but 12/1 looks too short.
Form: 6/10
Value: 4/10
Chance: 5/10
Racing History (14/1)
Tipped by 2Pts Win at 8/1 when successful at Salisbury in Group Three company, he’ll need to improve plenty for this but has all the right credentials. A full brother to Farrh – successful in this two years ago – and proven on the good to soft ground, he could be something special and surely represents some value at 14/1. His low draw (1) only adds to his appeal.
Form: 6/10
Value: 8/10
Chance: 7/10
Ribbons (20/1)
A neck behind star filly Legatissimo in the Pretty Polly Stakes at Curragh, the form of that race has been contradicted many times since and, besides that, she can only claim to have won a solid fillies’ Group Two this season. Her three-year-old, Group-One-winning form is something else, though, and if back to her best she could be a steal at 20/1.
Form: 7/10
Value: 7/10
Chance: 5/10
Fascinating Rock (16/1)
2nd to last year’s second, Al Kazeem, in the Group-One Tattersalls Gold Cup at Curragh – won by Noble Mission on the way to success in this last year – he’s looks to have all the right credentials with the forecast cut in the ground. He was three lengths behind Racing History at Salisbury but might have needed the run after a three-month break and duly got back to winning ways in a Leopardstown Group Three in September. His trainer, Dermot Weld, rarely sends a horse to these shores so looks good each-way value if allowed to go off at a big price.
Form: 6/10
Value: 8/10
Chance: 6/10
Palace Prince (66/1)
Generally the German form doesn’t hold up in our top races – with Novelist’s King George success a few years back a notable exception – and we’ll admit to knowing nothing about this horse. The bookies don’t fancy his chances and we’ve not heard the right noises from connections so he’s easily passed.
Form: ???
Value: ???
Chance: ???
Lightning Spear (40/1)
A good horse but he looks to have too much improving to do now fully exposed after a long campaign.
Form: 4/10
Value: 5/10
Chance: 3/10
The verdict
Looking at the small winning distances down the years, a wide draw can be costly and Jack Hobbs will have to overcome that. We’ll admit to having nibbled at Racing History ante-post at 20/1 and he still appeals at 14/1, though Fascinating Rock and Ribbons both look like good each-way bets. Vadamos looks a big threat, though he’s hard to back with any confidence at 6/1, and it’s Aiden O’Brien’s Found who looks good value to take this at 5/1.
1pt win Found @5/1, Champion Stakes, Ascot 17th October
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